Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil
Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1590/s0074-02762008000600004
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Massad, Eduardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Coelho, Giovanini E;Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento;Massad, Eduardo
我们分析了2006年10月至2007年7月期间全国146个城市的登革热发病情况，并于2006年10月进行了幼虫指数快速测定（里拉）监测。其中，我们选择了在此期间报告了500例或更多病例的61个城市。我们计算了这61个城市登革热的发病系数、感染力（lambda）和基本繁殖数（R-0），并将这些变量与里拉相关联。我们得出结论，λ和R-0与病例数的相关性大于里拉。此外，2006/2007年登革热季节的平均R-0几乎与2001/2002年季节的计算值一样高，这是巴西历史上最严重的一次。
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R-0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R-0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R-0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.