Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion
Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion
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DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2015.05.023
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发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Li-Xin Zhong;Wen-Juan Xu;Rongda Chen;T. Qiu;Yong-Dong Shi;Chen-Yang Zhong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Li-Xin Zhong;Wen-Juan Xu;Rongda Chen;T. Qiu;Yong-Dong Shi;Chen-Yang Zhong
通过将隔离的空间域和基于个体的联系纳入SIS（易感者-被感染者-易感者）模型，提出了一种可以从地域流行病模型转变为网络流行病模型的广义流行病模型。研究了不同空间域之间基于个体的联系的作用。当我们将时间尺度参数τ从0调整到代表基于个体的链接激活程度的单位时，发现了三个区域。在0< τ< 0.02区间内，疫情由局部运动决定，对时间尺度τ敏感。在0.02< τ< 0.5区间内，疫情对时间尺度τ不敏感。在0.5< τ< 1区域内，疫情的爆发是由基于个体的联系结构决定的。当我们关注第一个区域时，当前模型中激活基于个人的联系的作用类似于二维小世界网络中的捷径的作用。只要激活少数以个人为基础的联系，就能促使疫情在全球爆发。考察了缩小隔离空间域和降低流动性在疫情防控中的作用。这两项措施只有在抑制全球相互作用的情况下才有利于遏制传染病的传播。发现感染个体数量的变化与时间标度τ之间存在对数对数关系。通过计算流行病阈值和平均首次接触时间，启发式地分析了该模型中流行病传播的微观特征。
By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible–infected–susceptible) model, we propose a generalized epidemic model which can change from the territorial epidemic model to the networked epidemic model. The role of the individual-based linkage between different spatial domains is investigated. As we adjust the timescale parameter τ from 0 to unity, which represents the degree of activation of the individual-based linkage, three regions are found. Within the region of 0< τ< 0.02, the epidemic is determined by local movement and is sensitive to the timescale τ. Within the region of 0.02< τ< 0.5, the epidemic is insensitive to the timescale τ. Within the region of 0.5< τ< 1, the outbreak of the epidemic is determined by the structure of the individual-based linkage. As we keep an eye on the first region, the role of activating the individual-based linkage in the present model is similar to the role of the shortcuts in the two-dimensional small world network. Only activating a small number of the individual-based linkage can prompt the outbreak of the epidemic globally. The role of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control is checked. These two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease only when the global interaction is suppressed. A log–log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale τ is found. By calculating the epidemic threshold and the mean first encounter time, we heuristically analyze the microscopic characteristics of the propagation of the epidemic in the present model.