Detection of large-scale cloud microphysical changes within a major shipping corridor after implementation of the International MaritimeOrganization 2020 fuel sulfur regulations
Detection of large-scale cloud microphysical changes within a major shipping corridor after implementation of the International MaritimeOrganization 2020 fuel sulfur regulations
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-23-8259-2023
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发表时间：
2023-07-25
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Diamond, Michael S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diamond, Michael S.
国际海事组织（IMO）限制航运业硫排放的新法规预计将在公共卫生方面带来巨大好处，但可能会带来不希望的副作用：随着船舶污染对气候的冷却作用，全球变暖加速海洋云减弱。先前的研究发现，在IMO 2020法规生效后，云中船舶航迹的检测大幅减少，但大规模云特性的变化更加模糊。使用一种统计技术，估计反事实领域的大规模云和辐射特性在东南大西洋的一个孤立的航运走廊将在没有航运的情况下，我们有信心地检测到减少的幅度云滴有效半径减少航运走廊内，并找到证据减少云增亮的幅度以及。根据IMO 2020条例，由于气溶胶-云相互作用引起的瞬时辐射强迫在航运走廊内估计为O（1 W m（-2）），从而使全球估计值O（0.1 W m（-2））可信。除了地球物理意义外，我们的研究结果还为IMO 2020法规的总体合规性提供了独立证据。
New regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) limiting sulfur emissions from the shipping industry are expected to have large benefits in terms of public health but may come with an undesired side effect: acceleration of global warming as the climate-cooling effects of ship pollution on marine clouds are diminished. Previous work has found a substantial decrease in the detection of ship tracks in clouds after the IMO 2020 regulations went into effect, but changes in large-scale cloud properties have been more equivocal. Using a statistical technique that estimates counterfactual fields of what large-scale cloud and radiative properties within an isolated shipping corridor in the southeastern Atlantic would have been in the absence of shipping, we confidently detect a reduction in the magnitude of cloud droplet effective radius decreases within the shipping corridor and find evidence for a reduction in the magnitude of cloud brightening as well. The instantaneous radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions from the IMO 2020 regulations is estimated as O(1 W m(-2)) within the shipping corridor, lending credence to global estimates of O(0.1 W m(-2)). In addition to their geophysical significance, our results also provide independent evidence for general compliance with the IMO 2020 regulations.