Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change
Big Data Sensors of Organic Advocacy: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Climate Change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0159885
复制
发表时间：
2016-08-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ayers, John W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leas, Eric C.;Althouse, Benjamin M.;Ayers, John W.
专家们用来分享社会事业信息的策略历来都是自上而下的，这意味着最有影响力的信息被认为来自计划好的活动和活动。然而，如今独立参与社会事业的人比以往任何时候都多，部分原因是在线平台使他们能够即时寻找、创建和共享信息。在某些情况下，这种“有机倡导”可能会与自上而下的策略相媲美，甚至黯然失色。大数据分析可以通过分析传播有机宣传的相同平台来快速检测公众对社会事业的参与。为了证明这一主张，我们评估了莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥 (Leonardo DiCaprio) 2016 年奥斯卡获奖感言中引用气候变化如何激发有关气候变化的全球英语新闻（彭博终端新闻档案）、社交媒体（Twitter 帖子）和信息搜索（谷歌搜索）。尽管传统新闻报道增幅不大（54%；95% CI：-144 至 247），但包含“气候变化”或“全球变暖”等术语的推文却创下历史新高，增加了 636%（95% CI：573-699），在迪卡普里奥讲话当天，推文数量超过 250,000 条。实际上，“迪卡普里奥效应”比 2015 年缔约方会议（COP）和地球日效应的日均效应分别高出 3.2 和 5.3 倍。与此同时，在迪卡普里奥发表讲话当天，谷歌搜索“气候变化”或“全球变暖”分别增加了 261%（95% CI，186-335）和 210%（95% CI 149-272），并在接下来的 4 天里保持较高水平，分别为 104,190 和 216,490 次搜索。这一增幅比 COP 日均值或地球日期间观察到的增幅高出 3.8 倍和 4.3 倍。搜索量与迪卡普里奥演讲的内容（例如“最热的一年”）密切相关，因为未提及的内容没有搜索量增加（例如“电动汽车”）。由于这些数据可以实时免费获得，我们的分析策略为专家提供了大量的准备时间，以便在问题突出时发现并参与有机宣传。我们的研究展示了发现和帮助变革推动者的新机会，并增进了我们对 21 世纪媒体格局中传播的理解。
The strategies that experts have used to share information about social causes have historically been top-down, meaning the most influential messages are believed to come from planned events and campaigns. However, more people are independently engaging with social causes today than ever before, in part because online platforms allow them to instantaneously seek, create, and share information. In some cases this "organic advocacy" may rival or even eclipse top-down strategies. Big data analytics make it possible to rapidly detect public engagement with social causes by analyzing the same platforms from which organic advocacy spreads. To demonstrate this claim we evaluated how Leonardo DiCaprio's 2016 Oscar acceptance speech citing climate change motivated global English language news (Bloomberg Terminal news archives), social media (Twitter postings) and information seeking (Google searches) about climate change. Despite an insignificant increase in traditional news coverage (54%; 95% CI: -144 to 247), tweets including the terms "climate change" or "global warming" reached record highs, increasing 636% (95% CI: 573-699) with more than 250,000 tweets the day DiCaprio spoke. In practical terms the " DiCaprio effect" surpassed the daily average effect of the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Earth Day effect by a factor of 3.2 and 5.3, respectively. At the same time, Google searches for "climate change" or "global warming" increased 261% (95% CI, 186-335) and 210% (95% CI 149-272) the day DiCaprio spoke and remained higher for 4 more days, representing 104,190 and 216,490 searches. This increase was 3.8 and 4.3 times larger than the increases observed during COP's daily average or on Earth Day. Searches were closely linked to content from Dicaprio's speech (e.g., "hottest year"), as unmentioned content did not have search increases (e.g., "electric car"). Because these data are freely available in real time our analytical strategy provides substantial lead time for experts to detect and participate in organic advocacy while an issue is salient. Our study demonstrates new opportunities to detect and aid agents of change and advances our understanding of communication in the 21st century media landscape.