An analysis of spatiotemporal pattern for COIVD-19 in China based on space-time cube
An analysis of spatiotemporal pattern for COIVD-19 in China based on space-time cube
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DOI：
10.1002/jmv.25834
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发表时间：
2020-04-25
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhiyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mo, Chunbao;Tan, Dechan;Zhang, Zhiyong
本研究旨在检查和分析2019年新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的时空模式，并确定病例的时空分布特征和变化趋势。因此，进行了局部离群值分析和新兴时空热点分析，基于时空立方体分析2020年1月23日至2020年2月24日期间COVID-19病例的时空聚集模式和冷/热点趋势。主要结论如下：（1）疫情在短时间内迅速在全国蔓延，目前总体发病率有所下降。(2)病例的时空分布不均匀。在时空聚集格局上，武汉和十堰市为中心，两市均为高-高聚集格局，河南、安徽、江西、湖南和重庆市部分地区为不稳定的多型格局。这些区域在时空趋势上持续处于热点区域。(3)基于时空立方体的时空分析技术可以全面分析流行病学数据的时空模式，并产生可视化的后果输出，直观地反映数据在时空上的分布和趋势。因此，中国政府应该有针对性地加强防控力度，以科普高度多变的形势。
This study seeks to examine and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks and identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and changing trends of cases. Hence, local outlier analysis and emerging spatiotemporal hot spot analysis were performed to analyze the spatiotemporal clustering pattern and cold/hot spot trends of COVID-19 cases based on space-time cube during the period from 23 January 2020 to 24 February 2020. The main findings are as follows: (1) The outbreak had spread rapidly throughout the country within a short time and the current totality incidence rate has decreased. (2) The spatiotemporal distribution of cases was uneven. In terms of the spatiotemporal clustering pattern, Wuhan and Shiyan city were the center as both cities had high-high clustering pattern with a surrounding unstable multiple-type pattern in partial areas of Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces, and Chongqing city. Those regions are continuously in the hot spot on the spatiotemporal tendency. (3) The spatiotemporal analysis technology based on the space-time cube can analyze comprehensively the spatiotemporal pattern of epidemiological data and produce a visual output of the consequences, which can reflect intuitively the distribution and trend of data in space-time. Therefore, the Chinese government should strengthen the prevention and control efforts in a targeted manner to cope with a highly changeable situation.