Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2923
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Plattner, Gian-Kasper
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clark, Peter U.;Shakun, Jeremy D.;Plattner, Gian-Kasper
围绕缓解和适应人为气候变化所需行动的政策辩论，大部分是以过去150年的观测以及对21世纪气候和海平面的预测为框架的。然而，对这250年窗口期的关注掩盖了与气候变化相关的一些最深刻的问题。在这里，我们认为，20世纪和21世纪，绝大多数人为造成的碳排放可能发生的时期，需要放在一个长期的背景下，包括过去的两万年，当最后一个冰河时代结束，人类文明发展，以及未来的一万年，在这段时间内，人为气候变化的影响将增长并持续下去。这一长期观点表明，未来几年到几十年的政策决定将对全球气候、生态系统和人类社会产生深远影响--不仅是本世纪，而且是下一个一万年乃至更长时间。
Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies - not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.