Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin
Assessing Future Ecosystem Services: a Case Study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin
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DOI：
10.5751/es-00557-070301
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发表时间：
2003-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Garry D. Peterson;T. Beard;B. Beisner;E. Bennett;S. Carpenter;G. Cumming;C. Dent;T. D. Havlicek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Garry D. Peterson;T. Beard;B. Beisner;E. Bennett;S. Carpenter;G. Cumming;C. Dent;T. D. Havlicek
威斯康星州的北方高地湖区正从一个人烟稀少的地区向一个人口更稠密的地区过渡。预期的变化为北方威斯康星州居民带来了好处，但也威胁到他们所依赖的生态服务的退化。由于这一地区的未来是不确定的，因此很难做出既能避免潜在风险又能利用潜在机会的决策。我们采用情景规划的方法来科普这个问题的预测。我们使用千年生态系统评估开发的生态评估框架，以确定在北方高地湖区的关键社会和生态驱动力。从这些，我们描述了三种替代方案，到2025年，其中预计使用的生态服务是有很大的不同。本文报告的工作演示了如何可以开发一个地区的情景，并提供了一个起点，参与讨论的替代未来北方威斯康星州。虽然未来是不可知的，我们希望本文开始的评估过程将有助于北方高地湖区的人民选择他们地区的未来道路。
The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which the projected use of ecological services is substantially different. The work reported in this paper demonstrates how scenarios can be developed for a region and provides a starting point for a participatory discussion of alternative futures for northern Wisconsin. Although the future is unknowable, we hope that the assessment process begun in this paper will help the people of the Northern Highlands Lake District choose the future path of their region.