Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach
Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach
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DOI：
10.1101/625632
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发表时间：
2019-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xi-Jie Li;Ming-Fei Wu;Jian Ma;Boya Gao;Qiu-Lin Wu;Ai-dong Chen;Jie Liu;Yu-ying Jiang;B. Zhai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xi-Jie Li;Ming-Fei Wu;Jian Ma;Boya Gao;Qiu-Lin Wu;Ai-dong Chen;Jie Liu;Yu-ying Jiang;B. Zhai
背景技术秋粘虫(FAW)是一种来自美洲的入侵害虫，正在东大陆迅速蔓延，最近已入侵印度支那半岛和中国南部。在美洲，秋粘虫从南部的冬季繁殖区迁移到整个北美洲的夏季繁殖区，是那里玉米的主要害虫。亚洲人口也有可能迁移到中国东部的玉米产区，对那里的粮食安全构成严重威胁。结果 为了评估中国东部的入侵风险，通过轨迹模拟方法，结合飞行行为和气象数据，对扩张速度和未来迁徙范围进行了建模。我们的研究结果预测，秋粘虫将从其新的全年繁殖区通过两条途径迁移到中国东部的两个玉米主产区（华北和东北平原）。西线起点为缅甸、云南，一汽将分四步迁徙，于7月前抵达华北平原。从印度支那和华南沿东部通道迁徙进展较快，一汽在6月分三步到达华北平原，7月到达东北平原。结论我们的研究结果表明，秋粘虫通过两条迁移途径侵入中国东部玉米主产区的风险很高，并对农业生产力造成重大影响。有关迁移途径和时间的信息可用于为这种新出现的害虫制定综合害虫管理策略。
BACKGROUND The fall armyworm (FAW), an invasive pest from the Americas, is rapidly spreading through the Old World, and has recently invaded the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China. In the Americas, FAW migrates from winter-breeding areas in the south into summer-breeding areas throughout North America where it is a major pest of corn. Asian populations are also likely to evolve migrations into the corn-producing regions of eastern China, where they will pose a serious threat to food security. RESULTS To evaluate the invasion risk in eastern China, the rate of expansion and future migratory range was modelled by a trajectory simulation approach, combined with flight behaviour and meteorological data. Our results predict that FAW will migrate from its new year-round breeding regions into the two main corn-producing regions of eastern China (the North China and Northeast China Plains), via two pathways. The western pathway originates in Myanmar and Yunnan, and FAW will take four migration steps to reach the North China Plain by July. Migration along the eastern pathway from Indochina and southern China progresses faster, with FAW reaching the North China Plain in three steps by June and reaching the Northeast China Plain in July. CONCLUSION Our results indicate that there is a high risk that FAW will invade the major corn-producing areas of eastern China via two migration pathways, and cause significant impacts to agricultural productivity. Information on migration pathways and timings can be used to inform integrated pest management strategies for this emerging pest.