Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools
Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools
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DOI：
10.2112/jcoastres-d-16-00086.1
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发表时间：
2016-08
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Watson
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Watson
摘要 Watson, P.J., 2016。美国平均海平面加速？使用改进的工具获得新的见解。继 1992 年布鲁斯·道格拉斯 (Bruce Douglas) 的开创性工作之后，海平面研究人员热衷于在数据丰富的美国边缘地区检测平均海平面加速。在过去的十年中，鉴于平均海平面仍然是衡量气候系统变化的关键指标，此类研究变得更加重要。基于物理的气候预测模型预测，到 2100 年，当前全球平均海平面上升率（约 3 毫米/年）可能会攀升至 10-20 毫米/年。该领域的大多数研究都集中在协调当前的上升率与满足气候模型预测所需的显着加速度之间。本文的分析基于最近开发的名为“msltrend”的分析包，该分析包专门设计用于增强对从长期年平均海洋水位时间序列得出的相对平均海平面信号的趋势、实时速度和加速度的估计。主要发现是，在 95% 的置信水平下，目前还没有一致或实质性的证据表明，在美国现有的历史记录中，最近的上升率较高或异常，也没有任何证据表明地心上升率高于全球平均水平。未来 20 年的数据很可能将确定加尔维斯顿以东和东海岸最近的增长是否是气候变化引起的加速开始的证据。
ABSTRACT Watson, P.J., 2016. Acceleration in U.S. mean sea level? A new insight using improved tools. The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10–20 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled “msltrend,” specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.