2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions
2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-022-01520-4
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发表时间：
2022-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ting, Mingfang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bartusek, Samuel;Kornhuber, Kai;Ting, Mingfang
2021年夏季北美的高温条件超过了以往的热浪，许多人认为在目前的气候条件下是不可能的。相关的严重影响突出表明，需要了解热浪的物理驱动因素及其与气候变化的关系，以改善对未来极端高温风险的预测和预测。在这里，我们发现，缓慢和快速移动的大气环流的组件相互作用，沿着区域土壤水分不足，触发5西格玛热事件。其严重程度被其驱动因素之间的非线性相互作用放大了40%，可能部分是由长期区域变暖和土壤干燥催化的陆地-大气反馈驱动的。自20世纪50年代以来，全球变暖已经将该事件的每日最高区域温度异常从几乎不可能转变为目前估计类似于200年发生的事件。随着全球进一步变暖，其可能性预计将迅速增加，在气候比工业化前时期高2摄氏度的情况下，可能会成为10年一次的事件，到2050年可能会达到这一点。
Heat conditions in North America in summer 2021 exceeded previous heatwaves by margins many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need for understanding the physical drivers of the heatwave and relations to climate change, to improve the projection and prediction of future extreme heat risks. Here, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation interacted, along with regional soil moisture deficiency, to trigger a 5-sigma heat event. Its severity was amplified -40% by nonlinear interactions between its drivers, probably driven in part by land-atmosphere feedbacks catalysed by long-term regional warming and soil drying. Since the 1950s, global warming has transformed the peak daily regional temperature anomaly of the event from virtually impossible to a presently estimated similar to 200-yearly occurrence. Its likelihood is projected to increase rapidly with further global warming, possibly becoming a 10-yearly occurrence in a climate 2 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial period, which may be reached by 2050.