Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating
Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating
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DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.2013.1793
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Alos-Ferrer, Carlos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Achtziger, Anja;Alos-Ferrer, Carlos
我们提出了一个基于心理学双过程理论的不确定性决策的简单模型，并用它来说明与管理环境特别相关的直觉决策的可能组成部分。决策是两个决策过程相互作用的结果。第一个捕获基于信念的贝叶斯更新的优化。第二种对应于强化学习的一种形式，捕捉依赖过去表现的趋势。该模型预测，（i）在两个过程之间发生冲突的情况下，正确的响应与更长的响应时间相关联，但（ii）如果两个过程都对齐，错误会更慢。此外，（iii）在冲突的情况下的响应时间比在对齐的情况下的响应时间长。我们在实验中使用一个范式来证实该模型的预测，其中关联的赢-留、输-移过程与理性信念更新相冲突。
We present a simple model for decision making under uncertainty building on dual-process theories from psychology, and use it to illustrate a possible component of intuitive decision making of particular relevance for managerial settings. Decisions are the result of the interaction between two decision processes. The first one captures optimization based on Bayesian updating of beliefs. The second corresponds to a form of reinforcement learning capturing the tendency to rely on past performance. The model predicts that (i) in the case of conflict between the two processes, correct responses are associated with longer response times, but (ii) if both processes are aligned, errors are slower. Furthermore, (iii) response times in the case of conflict are longer than in the case of alignment. We confirm the predictions of the model in an experiment using a paradigm where an associative win-stay, lose-shift process conflicted with rational belief updating.