Oscillatory Dynamics in Infectivity and Death Rates of COVID-19
Oscillatory Dynamics in Infectivity and Death Rates of COVID-19
复制标题
DOI：
10.1128/msystems.00700-20
复制
发表时间：
2020-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Kral, Petr
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pavlicek, Tomas;Rehak, Pavel;Kral, Petr
对系统收集的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传染性和死亡率数据的分析显示，在世界各地的许多国家，典型的振荡模式具有7天（circaseptan）周期。此外，在一些国家，还观察到3.5天（半环庚烷）和14天的周期。有趣的是，7天的传染性和死亡率振荡几乎是同步的，在周四/周五显示局部最大值，在周日/周一显示局部最小值。这些观察结果与已知的死亡率与周末医院医务人员减少的模式形成鲜明对比。虽然我们不能排除观察到的波动的很大一部分与个别病例的报告有关的可能性，但其他原因可能至少部分地导致了这些数据。针对这些观察结果的一个可能的假设是，它们反映了随着时间的推移，压力逐渐增加，这可能会引发周四/周五的更高死亡率。此外，假设周末为新感染提供了可能的时间，那么新病例的最大数量可能会再次下降到周四/周五。这些观察结果值得进一步研究，以更好地了解COVID-19的动态。重要性COVID-19的传染性和死亡率已在世界各地的许多国家以及全球的集体数据中观察到。这些振荡显示出明显的circaseptan周期性，这可能与许多生物学原因以及收集的数据报告不当有关。由于在不同的国家，甚至在不同的大陆，如瑞典（非常显著的波动）或印度（几乎没有波动）观察到非常不同的结果，这些数据提供了关于疾病传播或报告的不同条件的非常重要的信息，这反过来又可以作为未来流行病的指导工具。后续研究有必要跟踪观察到的差异，并完全可靠地解决其根源。
The analysis of systematically collected data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infectivity and death rates has revealed, in many countries around the world, a typical oscillatory pattern with a 7-day (circaseptan) period. Additionally, in some countries, 3.5-day (hemicircaseptan) and 14-day periodicities have also been observed. Interestingly, the 7-day infectivity and death rate oscillations are almost in phase, showing local maxima on Thursdays/Fridays and local minima on Sundays/ Mondays. These observations are in stark contrast to a known pattern correlating the death rate with the reduced medical staff in hospitals on the weekends. While we cannot exclude the possibility that a significant portion of the observed oscillations is associated with the reporting of the individual cases, other reasons might contribute at least partly to these data. One possible hypothesis addressing these observations is that they reflect gradually increasing stress with the progressing week, which can trigger the higher death rates on Thursdays/Fridays. Moreover, assuming the weekends provide the likely time for new infections, the maximum number of new cases might fall, again, on Thursdays/Fridays. These observations deserve further study to provide a better understanding of COVID-19 dynamics.IMPORTANCE The infectivity and death rates for COVID-19 have been observed in many countries around the world as well as in the collective data of the whole world. These oscillations show distinct circaseptan periodicity, which could be associated with numerous biological reasons as well as with improper reporting of the data collected. Since very different results are observed in different countries and even continents, such as Sweden (very significant oscillations) or India (almost no oscillations), these data provide a very important message about different conditions under which the disease is spread or is reported, which, in turn, could serve as guidance tools in future epidemics. It is necessary that follow-up studies track the observed differences and fully reliably address their origins.