Determining the credibility of commitments in international climate policy
Determining the credibility of commitments in international climate policy
复制标题
确定国际气候政策承诺的可信度
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
A. Dannenberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Victor;Marcel Lumkowsky;A. Dannenberg
气候变化巴黎协定旨在通过允许各国政府设定自己的承诺来改善合作。它的成功取决于政府和投资者是否相信这些国家承诺。为了评估可信度，我们询问了大量具有数十年经验的气候政策精英的新样本，这些精英有能力评估各国的政策承诺是否与他们在政治和行政上能够实施的政策一致。这一专家评估表明，作出最大胆承诺的国家也作出了最可信的承诺，这与雄心勃勃与可信度之间权衡的理论警告形成了鲜明对比。我们发现，国家政治机构的质量是信誉变化的最大解释者，欧洲的信誉是非常高的。我们还发现，在解释国家合作承诺的可信度方面，经济因素，如控制排放的成本和收益，在统计上并不重要。国际气候合作的成功取决于各国在《巴黎协定》下的承诺是否可信。基于对经验丰富的气候政策专业人士的调查，作者探讨了国家承诺可信度的决定因素。
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to improve cooperation by allowing governments to set their own commitments. Its success hinges on whether governments and investors believe those national commitments. To assess credibility, we interrogate a large novel sample of climate policy elites with decades of experience and well-placed to evaluate whether nations’ policy pledges are aligned with what they are politically and administratively able to implement. This expert assessment reveals that countries making the boldest pledges are also making the most credible pledges, contrasting theoretical warnings of a trade-off between ambition and credibility. We find that the quality of national political institutions is the largest explanator of the variation in credibility, and Europe’s credibility is exceptionally high. We also find that economic factors, such as the costs and benefits of controlling emissions, are statistically unimportant in explaining the credibility of national pledges to cooperate. The success of international climate cooperation relies on whether national commitments are believable under the Paris Agreement. Based on the survey with experienced climate policy professionals, the authors explore the determinants of credibility of national commitments.