Tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction for the southern Three-River Headwaters region, China
Tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction for the southern Three-River Headwaters region, China
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DOI：
10.2166/wcc.2018.190
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发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Dingmu Xiao;Xiaomei Huang;N. Qin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dingmu Xiao;Xiaomei Huang;N. Qin
树木年轮宽度标准年表是根据在南部三河源头 (TRH) 地区收集的普氏刺柏数据创建的。统计分析结果显示，四个年表的第一主成分（PC1）与每年 9 月至 8 月期间的仪器降水记录之间存在高度相关性。重建了该地区过去 461 年的降水量。通过分样本校准验证统计验证了重建模型的稳定性。重建系列揭示了22个极端干旱年和9个极端湿润年。结果表明，相对干旱期发生在1567-1597年、1604-1614年、1641-1656年、1684-1700年、1734-1755年、1817-1830年、1913-1932年、1953-1971年、1990-2005年。相对湿润的时期发生在1615-1630年、1657-1683年、1701-1733年、1756-1786年、1798-1816年、1844-1855年、1864-1875年、1885-1912年、1933-1952年、1977-1989年。与基于树木年轮的降水重建和周边地区的年表进行比较，为我们的重建提供了高度的信心，并且与相应网格公共部分中的季风亚洲干旱地图集（MADA）数据集具有良好的相关性。经验模态分解分析表明存在间隔为2-5年、6-10年、11-18年和28-60年的重要时期。这项研究有助于更好地了解降水的历史变化，并将有助于制定解决 TRH 地区气候变化的未来计划。
Tree-ring width standard chronologies were created from Juniperus przewalskii Kom data collected in the southern Three-River Headwaters (TRH) Region. Statistical analysis results showed high correlation between the first primary component (PC1) of the four chronologies and instrumental precipitation records during the annual September–August interval. Precipitation of the region was reconstructed for the past 461 years. It was verified that the reconstruction model was stable by split-sample calibration-verification statistics. The reconstruction series revealed 22 extremely dry years and 9 extremely wet years. Results showed relatively dry periods occurred during 1567–1597, 1604–1614, 1641–1656, 1684–1700, 1734–1755, 1817–1830, 1913–1932, 1953–1971, 1990–2005. Relatively wet periods occurred during 1615–1630, 1657–1683, 1701–1733, 1756–1786, 1798–1816, 1844–1855, 1864–1875, 1885–1912, 1933–1952, 1977–1989. Comparison with tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions, and chronologies from surrounding areas provided a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction, and correlated well with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) dataset in the public section of corresponding grids. The empirical mode decomposition analysis suggests the existence of significant periods with intervals of 2–5, 6–10, 11–18, and 28–60 years. This research contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and will aid in future plans to address climate change of the TRH Region.