Calibrating Simple Climate Models to Individual Earth System Models: Lessons Learned From Calibrating Hector
Calibrating Simple Climate Models to Individual Earth System Models: Lessons Learned From Calibrating Hector
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ea000980
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Snyder, Abigail
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dorheim, Kalyn;Link, Robert;Snyder, Abigail
简单气候模式（SCM）计算效率高，能够模拟更复杂的地球系统模式（ESM）的全球平均输出。在这样做的过程中，SCM可以在气候研究中发挥关键作用，作为计算成本更高的模型的替代品，特别是在涉及低空间和/或时间分辨率的研究中，提供计算效率更高的气候数据来源。在这里，我们使用Hector v2.5.0来模拟31个浓度和7个排放驱动的ESM的多重强迫历史和RCP情景输出。在校准Hector时，必须使用足够的校准数据来约束模型;否则，影响物理过程的气候和/或碳参数可能会相互权衡，从而允许我们校准简化气候模型（SCM）Hector，以有效地再现（模拟）更复杂的气候模型的输出。使用SCM作为仿真器是气候科学和气候经济研究界的一种常见做法，其目的是模拟其他（非气候）部门的长期气候变化，这意味着精细尺度气候模拟需要太多的计算工作。为了使用赫克托耳作为一个仿真器，令人满意地再现了ESM的模拟气候，我们发现，赫克托耳必须与多个输出变量的约束。否则，参数可以与任意大的值进行权衡;例如，不切实际的高气候敏感性与不切实际的大气溶胶强迫相平衡，可以产生与ESM产生的温度变化相当的温度变化。我们还记录了一种新的方法，可以使用多模型范围作为校准数据，如果需要的话。使用物理上不合理的拟合参数值以及限制SCM作为仿真器的应用的解决方案。我们还提出了一种新的方法，使用ESM范围作为校准数据，当面临来自特定模型的丢失变量输出时，可以采用该方法。
Simple climate models (SCMs) are computationally efficient and capable of emulating global mean output of more complex Earth system models (ESMs). In doing so, SCMs can play a critical role in climate research as stand-ins for the computationally more expensive models, especially in studies involving low, spatial, and/or temporal resolution, providing more computationally efficient sources of climate data. Here we use Hector v2.5.0 to emulate the multiforcing historical and RCP scenario output for 31 concentration and seven emission-driven ESMs. When calibrating Hector, sufficient calibration data must be used to constrain the model; otherwise, climate and/or carbon parameters affecting physical processes may be able to trade off with one another, allowing forPlain Language Summary We calibrated a Simplified Climate Model (SCM), Hector, to efficiently reproduce (emulate) the output of more complex climate models. Using SCMs as emulators is a common practice in the climate science and climate-economic research communities where the aim is to simulate long-term changes in climate for other (nonclimate) sectors, meaning that fine-scale climate simulation requires too much computational effort. In order to use Hector as an emulator that satisfactorily reproduces an ESM's modeled climate, we found that Hector must be constrained with multiple output variables. Otherwise, parameters can trade off with arbitrarily large values; for example, an unrealistically high climate sensitivity balanced by unrealistically large aerosol forcing can produce temperature change comparable to those produced by an ESM. We also document a new method that can use the multimodel range as calibration data if need be. solutions to use physically unreasonable fitted parameter values as well as limiting the application of the SCM as an emulator. We also present a novel methodology that uses the ESM range as a calibration data, which can be adopted when faced with missing variable output from a specific model.