Exploring resilience with agent-based models: State of the art, knowledge gaps and recommendations for coping with multidimensionality
Exploring resilience with agent-based models: State of the art, knowledge gaps and recommendations for coping with multidimensionality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.06.008
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Grimm, Volker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Egli, Lukas;Weise, Hanna;Grimm, Volker
人为压力日益改变自然系统。因此，了解生态系统等基于主体的复杂系统的弹性，即它们吸收这些压力并维持其功能和服务的能力，是一个重大挑战。然而，人们对复原力背后的机制仍然知之甚少。其主要原因是弹性的多维性，包括三个基本稳定性属性恢复、抵抗和持久性，以及可以评估稳定性属性的具体情况。基于代理的模型（ABM）补充了实证研究，由于逻辑原因，实证研究在处理这些多个维度方面受到限制。除了能够通过在完全受控系统中进行广泛操作来整合多维性之外，ABM 还可以从组织不同级别的个人交互和反馈中捕获系统弹性的出现。为了评估 ABM 的潜力已被开发的程度，我们回顾了利用 ABM 探索生态和社会生态系统中的复原力及其多维性的最新技术。我们发现，大多数模型都没有利用 ABM 的潜力，因为它们通常通过使用可变性作为持久性的代理来关注弹性的单一维度，并且仅限于一种参考状态、干扰类型和规模。此外，只有少数研究明确测试了不同机制支持复原力的能力。为了克服这些限制，我们建议同时评估不同情况下的多个稳定性属性，并考虑假设使系统具有弹性的机制。这将帮助我们更好地利用 ABM 的潜力来理解和量化弹性机制，从而支持解决与基于代理的复杂系统的弹性相关的现实问题。
Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems.