Qualitative and quantitative modelling in system dynamics: some research questions
Qualitative and quantitative modelling in system dynamics: some research questions
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DOI：
10.1002/1099-1727(200023)16:3
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发表时间：
2000-09-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Coyle, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coyle, G
在系统动力学中，人们可以称之为正统的传统是，只有通过完全量化的模型才能分析问题并给出政策指导。然而，在过去的15年中，一些纯粹的定性模型已被描述，并已受到批评，在文献中。本文简要回顾了这一争论，然后讨论了量化有时涉及的一些问题和风险。这些问题的例子是对一个特定模型的分析，这个模型与它所要分析的真实的问题关系不大。一些定性模型，然后审查表明，他们确实可以导致政策的见解和定性模型的五个角色。最后，提出了一个研究议程，以确定定性和定量模型之间的明智的平衡。版权所有（C）2000约翰威利父子有限公司
The tradition, one might call it the orthodoxy, in system dynamics is that a problem can only be analysed, and policy guidance given, through the aegis of a fully quantified model. In the last 15 years, however, a number of purely qualitative models have been described, and have been criticised, in the literature. This article briefly reviews that debate and then discusses some of the problems and risks sometimes involved in quantification. Those problems are exemplified by an analysis of a particular model, which turns out to bear little relation to the real problem it purported to analyse. Some qualitative models are then reviewed to show that they can, indeed, lead to policy insights and five roles for qualitative models are identified. Finally, a research agenda is proposed to determine the wise balance between qualitative and quantitative models. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.