An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
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DOI：
10.1137/21s1462520
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Naomi A. Rankin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Naomi A. Rankin
.我们使用SEIR模型的三维基于代理的模拟对COVID-19爆发和船上隔离进行建模，该模型保留了船员，乘客和船上空间的比例。随机模型捕捉船上乘客和船员的移动模式，以及一旦建立隔离，这种移动如何变化。该研究包括根据接触人数和传播率推导基本生殖数。我们捕获了两个人之间的接触次数，当他们保持在相当于3英尺半径的模型内60分钟时，以及每次接触的传输概率。我们表明，根据测量的繁殖数，即使对船舶实施检疫，在大多数模拟中也必然会发生疫情。我们还发现，大多数感染发生在同一群体的其他人（乘客或机组人员）身上，其中乘客引起了大多数感染。
. We model the COVID-19 outbreak and shipboard quarantine with a 3-D agent-based simulation of a SEIR model which preserves the ratios of crew, passengers, and shipboard space. The stochastic model captures the movement patterns of passengers and crew members on-board the ship, as well as how this movement changed once quarantine is established. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number based on contact numbers and transmission rates. We capture the number of contacts between two people when they remain within the model equivalent of a 3-foot radius for 60 minutes and the transmission probability per contact. We show that, based on the measured reproduction number, an outbreak is bound to occur in the majority of simulations even with quarantine imposed on the ship. We also show that most infection on board occurs by others of the same group (passenger or crew), with passengers causing the majority of infections.