An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming
An emerging Asian aerosol dipole pattern reshapes the Asian summer monsoon and exacerbates northern hemisphere warming
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00400-8
复制
发表时间：
2023-06
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
B. Xiang;S. Xie;Sarah M. Kang;R. Kramer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Xiang;S. Xie;Sarah M. Kang;R. Kramer
自2010年代初以来，东亚（EA）的人为气溶胶开始减少，而南亚（SA）则继续增加。然而，这种亚洲气溶胶偶极子（AAD）模式的气候影响在很大程度上仍然未知。使用一个国家的最先进的气候模式，我们表明，气候响应之间的SA气溶胶增加和EA气溶胶减少是明显不同的。SA气溶胶的增加导致的强迫区内的陆地夏季降水变化比EA气溶胶的减少强2.7倍。相比之下，SA气溶胶增加，在热带季风制度，产生弱和热带局限的响应，而EA气溶胶减少产生显着的北方半球变暖的辅助下，热带平均西风和积极的海气反馈在西北太平洋。通过对观测到的瞬时短波辐射强迫进行定标，我们揭示了最近的AAD导致了显著的北方半球外（30°N以上）变暖（0.024 ± 0.010 °C decade−1），特别是在欧洲（0.049 ± 0.009 °C decade−1）。这些发现突出了强迫的格局效应在驱动全球气候方面的重要性，并对年代际预测具有重要意义。
Since the early 2010s, anthropogenic aerosols have started decreasing in East Asia (EA) while have continued to increase in South Asia (SA). Yet the climate impacts of this Asian aerosol dipole (AAD) pattern remain largely unknown. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we demonstrate that the climate response is distinctly different between the SA aerosol increases and EA aerosol decreases. The SA aerosol increases lead to ~2.7 times stronger land summer precipitation change within the forced regions than the EA aerosol decreases. Contrastingly, the SA aerosol increases, within the tropical monsoon regime, produce weak and tropically confined responses, while the EA aerosol decreases yield a pronounced northern hemisphere warming aided by extratropical mean westerly and positive air-sea feedbacks over the western North Pacific. By scaling the observed instantaneous shortwave radiative forcing, we reveal that the recent AAD induces a pronounced northern hemisphere extratropical (beyond 30°N) warming (0.024 ± 0.010 °C decade−1), particularly over Europe (0.049 ± 0.009 °C decade−1). These findings highlight the importance of the pattern effect of forcings in driving global climate and have important implications for decadal prediction.