Modelling land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region
Modelling land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region
复制标题
对下内雷特瓦地区的土地利用和土地覆盖变化进行建模
DOI：
10.21861/hgg.2023.85.01.02
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Valožić
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Josip Šetka;Petra Radeljak Kaufmann;L. Valožić
事实证明，模拟模型是预测土地变化的可靠工具，有助于更好地理解和管理人类对环境的影响。本研究对 1990 年至 2035 年间下内雷特瓦地区的土地利用和土地覆盖变化进行了分析和建模。未来变化的最终模拟模型是基于元胞自动机和人工神经网络创建的，并在 QGIS 的 MOLUSCE 插件中实现。此外，还创建了2020年的测试模拟模型，显示出较高的准确性。最终模拟模型的输入变量包括数字高程模型 (DEM)、坡度、距水体的距离、距建成区的距离以及 2011 年和 2021 年按定居点划分的人口密度。根据结果，森林和草地将扩大并占据近 45% 的面积。预计建成区和农业区将略有增加，而沼泽、水体和稀疏植被区将减少。
It has been shown that simulation models are reliable tools for predicting land changes, which contributes to better understanding and management of human impact on the environment. Land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region between 1990 and 2035 have been analysed and modelled in this study. The final simulation model of future changes was created based on cellular automata and artificial neural networks, implemented in the MOLUSCE plugin for QGIS. In addition, a test simulation model for 2020 was created, which showed high accuracy. Input variables for the final simulation model included a digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from water bodies, distance from built-up areas, and population density by settlement in 2011 and 2021. According to the results, forests and grasslands will expand and occupy almost 45% of the area. A slight increase in built-up and agricultural areas is expected, while swamps, water bodies, and sparse vegetation areas will decrease.