Methodological sensitivities to latent class analysis of long-term criminal trajectories
Methodological sensitivities to latent class analysis of long-term criminal trajectories
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DOI：
10.1023/b:joqc.0000016696.02763.ce
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发表时间：
2004-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Sampson, RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eggleston, EP;Laub, JH;Sampson, RJ
最近，越来越多的研究机构采用了一种基于半参数群体的方法来发现犯罪的潜在发展轨迹。对这种潜在阶级模型的热情并没有与鲁棒性和敏感性分析相匹配，以确定该方法的结论如何根据犯罪学数据中固有的基本方法问题而变化。本文以500名犯罪男孩和他们从7岁到70岁的官方犯罪统计为样本，系统地阐述了纵向研究中的三个关注点——(a)随访时间长短，(b)包括暴露时间（监禁），以及(3)通过死亡进行的非自愿放弃的数据——如何影响我们对发展轨迹的推断。虽然有一些稳定性的证据，但对不同条件下的组数、形状和组分配的比较表明，这三种数据考虑都可以在重要方面改变轨迹属性。更准确地说，关于犯罪的长期数据以及监禁和死亡率的信息似乎是关键信息，特别是在分析高犯罪率模式时。
A recent and growing body of research has employed a semiparametric group-based approach to discover underlying developmental trajectories of crime. Enthusiasm for such latent class models has not been matched with robustness and sensitivity analyses to determine how conclusions from the method vary according to fundamental methodological problems that inhere in criminological data. Using a sample of 500 delinquent boys and their official crime counts from ages 7 to 70, this paper systematically addresses how three concerns in longitudinal research-( a) length of follow-up, (b) the inclusion of exposure time ( incarceration), and ( 3) data on involuntary desistance through death - influence our inferences about developmental trajectories. While there is some evidence of stability, a comparison of group number, shape, and group assignment across varying conditions indicates that all three data considerations can alter trajectory attributes in important ways. More precisely, longer-term data on offending and the inclusion of incarceration and mortality information appear to be key pieces of information, especially when analyzing high-rate offending patterns.