Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?
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DOI：
10.1029/2009gl038710
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发表时间：
2009-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
A. Wittenberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Wittenberg
GFDL CM2.1全球耦合GCM的控制模拟显示，在大气成分、太阳辐照度和土地覆盖固定在1860年的条件下，其ENSO行为具有强烈的年代际和百年代际调制。在某种程度上，这种调制是现实的，它可能会给从百年和更短的记录中诊断出的ENSO指标带来很大的不确定性，这对历史和古记录、气候预测以及模式评估和相互比较具有重要意义。对ENSO变暖事件之间等待时间的分析表明，这种缓慢的调制不需要多年代际记忆；它可以简单地从应用于ENSO年际时间尺度和季节相位锁定的泊松统计中产生。
A control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 global coupled GCM, run for 2000 years with its atmospheric composition, solar irradiance, and land cover held fixed at 1860 values, exhibits strong interdecadal and intercentennial modulation of its ENSO behavior. To the extent that such modulation is realistic, it could attach large uncertainties to ENSO metrics diagnosed from centennial and shorter records – with important implications for historical and paleo records, climate projections, and model assessment and intercomparison. Analysis of the wait times between ENSO warm events suggests that such slow modulation need not require multidecadal memory; it can arise simply from Poisson statistics applied to ENSO's interannual time scale and seasonal phase‐locking.