Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission in Train Passengers: an Epidemiological and Modeling Study
Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission in Train Passengers: an Epidemiological and Modeling Study
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COVID-19 在火车乘客中传播的风险：流行病学和模型研究
DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciaa1057
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发表时间：
2021-02-15
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Lai, Shengjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Maogui;Lin, Hui;Lai, Shengjie
摘要背景火车是地球仪常见的公共交通方式;然而，COVID-19在个别火车乘客中传播的风险仍不清楚。方法我们使用2019年12月19日至2020年3月6日期间中国2，334名指示患者和72，093名密切接触者的数据，量化了COVID-19在高速列车乘客中的传播风险，这些患者的共同旅行时间为0-8小时。我们分析了火车乘客中COVID-19传播的时空分布，以阐明感染、空间距离和共同旅行时间之间的关系。结果与首诊患者3行5列以内座位上的旅客发病率为0 ~ 10.3%（95%CI 5.3%~ 19.0%），平均为0.32%（95%CI 0.29%~ 0.37%）。与首发患者同排座位的乘客平均发病率为1.5%（95%CI 1.3%~ 1.8%），高于其他座位的乘客（0.14%，95%CI 0.11%~ 0.17%），相对危险度（RR）为11.2（95%CI 8.6 ~ 14.6）。在所有座位中，与指示患者相邻的旅行者的COVID-19感染发病率最高（3.5%，95%CI 2.9% - 4.3%）（RR 18.0，95%CI 13.9 - 23.4）。攻击率随着距离的增加而降低，但随着共行时间的增加而增加。每小时共乘的攻击率平均增加0.15%（p = 0.005）;对于相邻座位的乘客，这一增加为1.3%（p = 0.008），是所有座位中最高的。结论COVID-19在火车乘客中传播的风险很高，但这种风险因同乘时间和座位位置而存在显着差异。疫情期间，乘坐公共交通工具在火车等密闭空间内出行时，应采取措施降低传播风险，包括增加座位距离、降低乘客密度、使用个人卫生防护等。
Abstract Background Train is a common mode of public transport across the globe; however, the risk of COVID-19 transmission among individual train passengers remains unclear. Methods We quantified the transmission risk of COVID-19 on high-speed train passengers using data from 2,334 index patients and 72,093 close contacts who had co-travel times of 0–8 hours from 19 December 2019 through 6 March 2020 in China. We analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of COVID-19 transmission among train passengers to elucidate the associations between infection, spatial distance, and co-travel time. Results The attack rate in train passengers on seats within a distance of 3 rows and 5 columns of the index patient varied from 0 to 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3% – 19.0%), with a mean of 0.32% (95%CI 0.29% – 0.37%). Passengers in seats on the same row as the index patient had an average attack rate of 1.5% (95%CI 1.3% – 1.8%), higher than that in other rows (0.14%, 95%CI 0.11% – 0.17%), with a relative risk (RR) of 11.2 (95%CI 8.6 –14.6). Travellers adjacent to the index patient had the highest attack rate (3.5%, 95%CI 2.9% – 4.3%) of COVID-19 infections (RR 18.0, 95%CI 13.9 – 23.4) among all seats. The attack rate decreased with increasing distance, but it increased with increasing co-travel time. The attack rate increased on average by 0.15% (p = 0.005) per hour of co-travel; for passengers at adjacent seats, this increase was 1.3% (p = 0.008), the highest among all seats considered. Conclusions COVID-19 has a high transmission risk among train passengers, but this risk shows significant differences with co-travel time and seat location. During disease outbreaks, when travelling on public transportation in confined spaces such as trains, measures should be taken to reduce the risk of transmission, including increasing seat distance, reducing passenger density, and use of personal hygiene protection.