Climate‐driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions
Climate‐driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions
复制标题
气候驱动，但动态且复杂？
DOI：
10.1111/ele.13902
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Evans, Margaret E. K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schultz, Emily L.;Hülsmann, Lisa;Pillet, Michiel D.;Hartig, Florian;Breshears, David D.;Record, Sydne;Shaw, John D.;DeRose, R. Justin;Zuidema, Pieter A.;Evans, Margaret E. K.
据估计，气候变化导致物种“濒临灭绝”的比例在15%到37%之间。问题是，预测物种范围变化的模型是否需要包括气候以外的因素。我们创建了包括气候与气候加竞争的人口分布范围模型，评估了它们对美国西南部半干旱地区特有的松树--湿地松的地理分布的影响。对1941年森林调查样地中23,426棵树的数据分析支持在范围模型中包括竞争。然而，气候和竞争加在一起只能部分解释这种物种的分布。相反，证据表明，气候影响其他限制范围的过程，包括景观尺度、空间过程，如干扰和拮抗的生物相互作用。气候对物种分布的复杂影响--通过间接影响、相互作用和反馈--可能导致丰度和分布的突然变化，从仅从气候的角度来看是无法预测的。
Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate‐plus‐competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution ofPinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range‐limiting processes, including landscape‐scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate‐only perspective.