Forecast assessment of topside spread F at Jicamarca
Forecast assessment of topside spread F at Jicamarca
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Jicamarca 上部溢流 F 的预测评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Hysell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Aveiro;D. Hysell
Jicamarca无人值守的电离层和大气长期调查（JULIA）雷达从1996年8月开始运行至今，在不同季节、太阳通量水平和地磁条件下，与赤道扩散F （ESF）观测相关的电离层不规则现象共进行了大约1500晚的观测。评估了子夜前和子夜后异常的气候学、持久性及其与月相的相关性，并比较了不同的预报工具。在春分期间，1天持续时间信息提高了对大多数太阳通量和地磁活动条件的气候预报，在低太阳通量时期有显著的提高。12月至日的ESF观测显示与月相高度相关，接近满月的时期出现ESF的概率最高。利用12月至日地磁平静期的这些信息，我们进一步改进了气候模型的预测。然而，对于午夜后和午夜前的6至ESF，气候学仍然给出了最好的预测结果。
[1] The Jicamarca Unattended Long Term Investigations of the Ionosphere and Atmosphere (JULIA) radar operated from August 1996 through the present time, making a total of approximately 1500 nights of ionospheric irregularities associated with equatorial spread F (ESF) observations under different seasons, solar flux levels, and geomagnetic conditions. The climatology, persistence, and correlation with the phase of the Moon of premidnight and postmidnight irregularities are evaluated, and different forecasting tools are compared. During equinox, 1 day persistence information improves the forecast over climatology alone for most solar flux and geomagnetic activity conditions, with a significant improvement during periods at low solar flux. December solstice ESF observations show a high correlation with the lunar phase, with periods close to the full Moon presenting the highest probability of ESF occurrence. Using this information for geomagnetically quiet periods during December solstice, we further improve the forecast over the climatological model. For postmidnight and premidnight June solstice ESF, however, climatology still gives the best forecasting results.