Potential implications of climate change and urbanization on watershed hydrology
Potential implications of climate change and urbanization on watershed hydrology
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.002
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
D. Pumo;E. Arnone;A. Francipane;D. Caracciolo;L. Noto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Pumo;E. Arnone;A. Francipane;D. Caracciolo;L. Noto
本文提出了一个模型框架，能够分析两个经常性的水文变化驱动因素引起的流域水文变化：气候变化和城市化。该程序的基础上耦合的随机天气发生器与土地利用变化模型生成的一些假设的情况。所生成的情景被连续地用于迫使基于物理的和空间分布式水文模型来重建不同条件下的流域响应。几个潜在的气候变化模拟施加负和正的变化，平均年降水量和同时温度升高。城市化的概念是增加不渗透部分的盆地。该程序被应用到一个大的流域和一个小得多的子流域，结果表明气候和土地利用变化可能会相互作用，影响基本的水文动力学和流域水文响应的过程可能会随着空间尺度的变化。
This paper proposes a modeling framework able to analyze the alterations in watershed hydrology induced by two recurrent drivers for hydrological changes: climate change and urbanization. The procedure is based on the coupling of a stochastic weather generator with a land use change model for the generation of some hypothetical scenarios. The generated scenarios are successively used to force a physically-based and spatial distributed hydrological model to reconstruct the basin response under different conditions. Several potential climate alterations are simulated by imposing negative and positive variations in the mean annual precipitation and a simultaneous temperature increase. Urbanization is conceptualized by an increase in the impervious fraction of the basin. The procedure is applied to a large basin and a much smaller sub-basin; the results show how climate and land use changes may interact and affect the fundamental hydrological dynamics and how the processes governing basin hydrological response may change with spatial scale.