FORECASTING THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF HOME CARE PATIENTS USING BIG DATA OF INSURANCE CLAIMS IN JAPAN: 2015 TO 2045
FORECASTING THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF HOME CARE PATIENTS USING BIG DATA OF INSURANCE CLAIMS IN JAPAN: 2015 TO 2045
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DOI：
10.1093/geroni/igac059.557
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发表时间：
2022-12-20
影响因子：
7
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中科院分区：
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日本家庭护理患者的地区分布和未来需求尚不清楚。本研究旨在揭示各地区家庭护理患者的实际情况，并预测到2045年的需求。提取了2015年4月至2016年3月期间通过医师家访接受计划和/或紧急医疗的奈良县（约占日本总人口和面积的1%）75岁以上患者的完整健康和长期护理保险索赔数据，并按性别、年龄组和市进行了分析。计算了奈良县医疗服务的5个行政区域的家庭医疗利用率，并推算了到2045年为止的每5年的家庭医疗患者数。提取了12，656例患者的数据，包括1，455例75-79岁患者、2，753例80-84岁患者、3，854例85-89岁患者和4，594例90岁或以上患者。按医疗服务行政区域划分的目前接受家庭医疗护理的患者比例（未调整年龄）显示，90岁或以上的患者差异高达1.6倍。预测结果显示，90岁或以上的患者人数显着增加，到2040年，总人数继续增加，最高达到约25，759人，然后下降。未来家庭护理患者数量的增加可能因年龄和地区而异，我们的研究结果表明，需要根据每个地区的未来需求制定公共卫生政策。
Regional distribution of home care patients and future demand in Japan are unknown. This study aimed to reveal the actual situation of home care patients by region and forecast demand up to 2045. Linked complete health and long-term care insurance claims data on Nara Prefecture (around 1% of the total population and area of Japan) patients aged 75 years or older who received planned and/or urgent medical treatment by physician home visit between April 2015 and March 2016 were extracted and analyzed by sex, age group, and municipality. We calculated the proportion of home medical care utilization and projected the number of home care patients for every five-year period up to 2045 across five administrative areas of the medical service in Nara Prefecture. Data on 12,656 patients, including 1,455 aged 75–79 years, 2,753 aged 80–84, 3,854 aged 85–89, and 4,594 aged 90 years or older, were extracted. The current proportion of patients receiving home medical care (unadjusted for age) by medical service administrative area showed a difference of up to 1.6 times for those aged 90 years or older. Results of forecasting showed a marked increase in the number of patients aged 90 years or older, with overall numbers continuing to increase up to 2040, reaching a maximum of around 25,759 then decreasing thereafter. The future increase in home care patient numbers could vary by age and area, and our findings suggest that public health policy based on the future demand in each area will be required.