Socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand
Socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand
复制标题
影响全球纸张和纸板需求的社会经济因素
DOI：
10.1007/s10086-017-1648-x
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Kayo Chihiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chiba Taiyo;Oka Hiroyasu;Kayo Chihiro
为了阐明影响全球纸张和纸板需求的社会经济因素，对1961-2014年期间的面板数据进行了分析。本研究以纸及纸板需求量为因变量，以一国经济水平、互联网使用率、塑料包装需求量、时间趋势为解释变量。经济水平与纸和纸板需求之间存在一个倒U型的二次曲线关系，如环境库兹涅茨曲线，随着经济水平的提高，纸和纸板需求饱和并开始下降。代表转折点的经济水平因用途而异，从新闻用纸的约37，000美元/人到印刷和书写用纸的约66，000美元/人。对于新闻纸和印刷和书写纸，随着经济水平的提高，由于互联网的普及，需求下降，尽管这种减少对印刷和书写纸的影响大于新闻纸。随着经济水平的提高，包装纸和瓦楞纸板与塑料包装之间没有替代关系。
To clarify the socioeconomic factors influencing global paper and paperboard demand, a panel data analysis was conducted covering the period 1961–2014. This study used paper and paperboard demand as the dependent variable, and a country’s economic level, Internet usage rate, plastic packaging demand, and time trend as the explanatory variables. An inverse U-shaped quadratic relationship, such as an environmental Kuznets curve, was found between economic level and paper and paperboard demand, which saturates and begins to decline as economic level increases. The economic level representing the turning point differs significantly with the use, ranging from around 37,000 US$/person for newsprint paper to around 66,000 US$/person for printing and writing paper. For both newsprint paper and printing and writing paper, demand declines owing to the spread of the Internet as the economic level rises, although this reductive effect is greater for printing and writing paper than for newsprint paper. A substitution relationship is not found between wrapping paper and corrugated cardboard on the one hand and plastic packaging on the other hand as the economic level becomes higher.