Postmodern Intelligence: Strategic Warning in an Age of Reflexive Intelligence
Postmodern Intelligence: Strategic Warning in an Age of Reflexive Intelligence
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后现代情报：反思性情报时代的战略警告
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Mauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Myriam Dunn Cavelty;V. Mauer
向决策者提供战略预警是政府情报机构的一项重要职能。今天，全球网络化的挑战日益使历史上以国家为中心的挑战黯然失色，因此发出警告变得相当困难。情报界的一些人认识到，目前的许多预警问题是由于继续依赖于分析工具、方法和过程，而这些工具、方法和过程适合于冷战期间威胁的静态和分层性质。然而，尽管替代分析技术已经开始应用，本文认为情报界可以从这样的理解中受益：不仅仅是威胁本体论发生了变化，事实上，最有意义的变化发生在认识论领域：社会已经看到了以前的手段-目的理性被反思性理性所取代。反身性安全的概念可以为理解当前的变化提供一个有价值的概念框架，它可能有助于使情报来源和方法适应新时代。特别是，对复杂性科学和后现代主义的认识可能会增加对知识局限性的理解，并导致建立不确定性的政治话语。
Providing strategic warning to policymakers is a key function of governmental intelligence organizations. Today, globally networked challenges increasingly overshadow their historical state-centric counterparts so that warning has become considerably more difficult. It is recognized in parts of the intelligence community that many of the current problems for warning arise from continued reliance on analytic tools, methodologies and processes that were appropriate to the static and hierarchical nature of the threat during the Cold War. However, even though alternative analysis techniques have begun to be applied, this article argues that the intelligence community could benefit from the understanding that more than just the ontology of threats has changed, that in fact it is in the epistemological area that the most meaningful changes have taken place: Society has seen the replacement of the previous means—end rationality by a reflexive rationality. The notion of reflexive security can provide a valuable conceptual framework for understanding the current changes, and it could be instrumental in adapting intelligence sources and methods to a new era. In particular, an awareness of both complexity sciences and postmodernism might increase understanding of the limitations of knowledge and lead to the establishment of a political discourse of uncertainty.