Time series of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone simulated with reanalyzed and operational forecast data
Time series of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone simulated with reanalyzed and operational forecast data
复制标题
用重新分析和业务预测数据模拟的平流层-对流层臭氧交换的时间序列
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. van Velthoven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. van Noije;A. Segers;P. van Velthoven
[1] 为了评估欧洲中期天气预报中心气象数据中大规模布鲁尔-多布森环流的质量和时间一致性，使用线性平流层臭氧化学模型计算平流层-对流层臭氧交换。使用 45 年再分析 ERA-40 和 1999 年 11 月至 2005 年 3 月期间的运行数据 (OD) 进行模拟。在两个半球，ERA-40 的臭氧交换通量通常高于 OD。在北半球，这种差异似乎因 1973 年将卫星观测引入 ERA-40 同化系统而加剧。与 1973 年 1 月至 3 月期间没有同化辐射观测的 ERA-40 系统运行数据的模拟比较可以证明这一点。还分析了臭氧交换通量作为用于驱动模型的同化风的预测范围的函数。为了在两个同化系统之间进行最佳比较，我们在 2001 年 7 月至 2002 年 6 月期间进行了比较，此时各个模型周期之间存在最大的重叠。发现 ERA-40 对预测时间和预测序列更新频率的敏感性比 OD 强得多。在随后几年的再分析中，得出的结论是，在预报模式下，由（卫星）观测同化引入的环流偏差大大减少。从化学输运模型的角度来看，结果表明，臭氧等示踪剂的平流层和对流层上层输运可以通过使用再分析的预测得到改善，但最好用业务数据来表示。
[1] To evaluate the quality and temporal consistency of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation in meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone is calculated using a model with linearized stratospheric ozone chemistry. Simulations are performed with the 45-year reanalysis ERA-40 and with operational data (OD) for the period November 1999 to March 2005. In both hemispheres the ozone exchange fluxes are generally higher with ERA-40 than OD. In the Northern Hemisphere this discrepancy appears to be exacerbated by the introduction of satellite observations into the ERA-40 assimilation system in 1973. A comparison to a simulation with data from a run of the ERA-40 system in which no radiance observations were assimilated for the period January–March 1973 serves to demonstrate this point. The ozone exchange flux was also analyzed as a function of the forecast range of the assimilated winds used to drive the model. For optimal comparison between the two assimilation systems, this is done for the year July 2001 to June 2002, when there is maximum overlap between the respective model cycles. The sensitivity to forecast time and update frequency of the forecast series is found to be much stronger for ERA-40 than OD. For the later years of the reanalysis it is concluded that the circulation bias introduced by the assimilation of (satellite) observations is strongly reduced during forecast mode. From a chemistry transport modeling perspective the results imply that the stratospheric and upper tropospheric transport of tracers like ozone can be improved by using the forecasts of the reanalysis but is best represented with the operational data.