Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh
Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh
复制标题
海平面上升对孟加拉国海岸风暴潮和洪水影响的集合预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Pietrafesa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mansur Ali Jisan;S. Bao;L. Pietrafesa
抽象的。水动力模型 Delft3D 用于研究海平面上升 (SLR) 对孟加拉国沿海地区风暴潮和洪水的影响。为了研究当前的洪水情景，使用了两个已知热带气旋 (TC) 的轨迹：艾拉（1 类；2009 年）和锡德（5 类；2007 年）。模型结果通过可用的观察结果进行了验证。未来的洪水情景是通过利用 TC Sidr、TC Aila 和历史 TC 轨迹的集合来生成的，但结合了 SLR 的效果。由于 SLR 影响下风暴潮淹没的未来变化是一个概率事件，因此通过考虑与 TC 路径、强度和登陆时间相关的不确定性来计算淹没区域未来变化的可能范围。模型输出显示，如果在 21 世纪中叶的气候情景中发生 0.26 m 的 SLR，则 TC Sidr 的淹没面积（计算为 1860 平方公里）将比当前情景大 31%。与此类似，21 世纪末的气候情景也出现了增加的趋势。结果发现，如果 SLR 为 0.54m，淹没面积将比现在大 53%。与淹没区域一起，我们还检查了 SLR 对未来风暴潮水平变化的影响。如果在 21 世纪中叶发生 0.26m 的 SLR，巴里萨尔台站的 TC Sidr 的风暴潮水平将显着增加 14%。与此类似，在 21 世纪末的气候情景中，该地点的 SLR 为 0.54m，风暴潮水平增加了 29%。基于未来TC事件不确定性的集合预测还表明，对于SLR变化0.54m，淹没面积将在3500至3750km2之间，而对于当前的SLR模拟，发现淹没区域在1000-1250km2范围内。这些结果表明，即使未来热带气旋保持与目前相同的强度，SLR的预计变化也将在浪涌高度和淹没区域范围方面产生更严重的威胁。
Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.
DOI：
10.1039/c4em00619d
发表时间：
2015-06
期刊：
Environmental science. Processes & impacts
影响因子：
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作者：
P. Whitehead;Emily Barbour;M. Futter;S. Sarkar;H. Rodda;J. Caesar;D. Butterfield;Li Jin;Rajiv Sinha;Robert J. Nicholls;M. Salehin
通讯作者：
P. Whitehead;Emily Barbour;M. Futter;S. Sarkar;H. Rodda;J. Caesar;D. Butterfield;Li Jin;Rajiv Sinha;Robert J. Nicholls;M. Salehin