PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATIC CHANGE
PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATIC CHANGE
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DOI：
10.1126/science.184.4138.753
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发表时间：
1974-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
BRYSON, RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BRYSON, RA
近年来，随着人们对人类活动对环境影响的日益关注，以及对环境对世界粮食供应影响的更加紧迫的关注，人们对从地方到全球各个层面的气候变化的兴趣日益高涨。一般报刊和专业期刊对气候变化的讨论范围从完全理论性到完全描述性，从对问题某些方面的详细分析到一般性推测。然而，从历史角度对气候变化的讨论很少，对某些重要问题的关注也很少，例如：（i）气候变化必须有多大才重要？（ii）气候变化能多快？（iii）因果参数是什么，它们为什么会变化？（iv）气候对因果参数的微小变化有多敏感？本文试图为这些问题提供一些视角。
In recent years, with the heightened concern about the impact of human activities on the environment and the more immediate concern about the inlpact of the environment on world food supplies, there has been an upsurge of interest in climatic change at all scales, from local to global. Discussions of climatic change in the general press and professional journals have ranged from completely theoretical to completely descriptive, and from detailed analysis of certain aspects of the problem to general speculation. However, there has been a dearth of discussion of climatic change from an historical perspective and minimal attention to certain important questions, such as:(i) How large must a clinlatic change be to be important?(ii) How fast can the climate change?(iii) What are the causal parameters, and why do they change?(iv) How sensitive is the climate to small changes in the causal parameters? This article is an attenlpt to provide an element of perspective on these questions.