The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks
The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks
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DOI：
10.1086/505048
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发表时间：
2006-06-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Fisher, JDM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fisher, JDM
新古典增长模型用于确定中性技术冲击的短期影响，中性技术冲击均匀地影响所有商品的生产，而投资特定冲击仅影响投资商品。对于识别投资冲击至关重要的实际设备价格在1982年经历了平均下降速度的突然增加，因此分析是基于分裂样本的。在优选规范的基础上，两种技术冲击分别占1982年之前产出商业周期变化的73%和44%，之后分别占38%和80%。在这两个样本中，冲击还占到3至8年期间产出预测误差的40%以上和58%。这些影响大多是由投资冲击驱动的。
The neoclassical growth model is used to identify the short-run effects of neutral technology shocks, which affect the production of all goods homogeneously, and investment-specific shocks, which affect only investment goods. The real equipment price, crucial for identifying the investment shocks, experiences an abrupt increase in its average rate of decline in 1982, so the analysis is based on a split sample. On the basis of the preferred specification, the two technology shocks account for 73 percent of hours' and 44 percent of output's business cycle variation before 1982, and 38 percent and 80 percent afterward. The shocks also account for more than 40 percent of hours' and 58 percent of output's forecast errors over a three- to eight-year horizon in both samples. The majority of these effects are driven by the investment shocks.