ENSO’s Response to Volcanism in a Data Assimilation‐Based Paleoclimate Reconstruction Over the Common Era
ENSO’s Response to Volcanism in a Data Assimilation‐Based Paleoclimate Reconstruction Over the Common Era
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2021pa004290
复制
发表时间：
2022-02
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
S. Dee;N. Steiger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Dee;N. Steiger
热带对爆发性火山活动的反应在古气候记录中仍然受到限制。虽然大气由于火山喷发后的气溶胶强迫而变冷，但模拟证据表明，热带太平洋会做出补偿性变暖的反应。鉴于大型火山喷发的罕见性和仪器记录较短，这些建模结果需要独立验证。在这里，我们使用新开发的古流体动力学数据同化产品 (PHYDA) 测试火山活动和热带太平洋动力学之间的联系，该产品跨越了过去 2,000 年。利用 PHYDA 的太平洋海面温度场和同时发生的火山喷发，我们测试了厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 对大型热带火山喷发的响应。我们发现，在足够大的热带火山喷发之后的一年里，热带太平洋出现了微弱的类似厄尔尼诺的反应。虽然使用叠加历元分析 (SEA) 和自组织图在 95% 置信水平下响应并不显着，但在使用概率密度函数时确实会出现显着的结果。我们的结果表明，广泛使用的基于复合平均的 SEA 方法可能不够灵敏，无法在存在较大内部变化的情况下捕获 ENSO 响应。我们还得出结论，气候模型和 PHYDA 结果之间的空间格局和强度不一致，表明当前模型高估了区域热带对火山强迫的响应。
The tropical response to explosive volcanism remains underconstrained in the paleoclimate record. While the atmosphere cools due to aerosol forcing following volcanic eruptions, modeling evidence suggests that the tropical Pacific responds with compensatory warming. Given the rarity of large volcanic eruptions and the short instrumental record, these modeling results require independent verification. Here, we test for links between volcanism and tropical Pacific dynamics using the newly developed Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), which spans the past 2,000 years. Using Pacific sea surface temperature fields from PHYDA and coincident volcanic eruptions, we test the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to large, tropical volcanic eruptions. We identify a weak El Niño‐like response of the tropical Pacific in the year following sufficiently large, tropical volcanic eruptions. While the response is not significant at the 95% confidence level using superposed epoch analysis (SEA) and self‐organizing maps, a significant result does emerge when employing probability density functions. Our results indicate that the widely used SEA approach, based on composite averaging, may not be sufficiently sensitive to capture an ENSO response in the presence of large internal variability. We additionally conclude that inconsistencies in both the spatial patterns and magnitudes between climate models and PHYDA results indicate that current models overestimate the regional tropical response to volcanic forcing.