The simulation of urban-scale evacuation scenarios with application to the Swinley forest fire
The simulation of urban-scale evacuation scenarios with application to the Swinley forest fire
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.015
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发表时间：
2018-02
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Anand Veeraswamy;E. Galea;L. Filippidis;P. Lawrence;Simo Haasanen;Rob Gazzard;Thomas E. L. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anand Veeraswamy;E. Galea;L. Filippidis;P. Lawrence;Simo Haasanen;Rob Gazzard;Thomas E. L. Smith
世界许多地区每年都会发生森林火灾，迫使人们进行大规模疏散。这些事件的频繁发生和日益增多，使得有必要为易受森林火灾影响的地区制定适当的疏散计划。通过将道路网络和空地(如公园、绿地和城镇广场)以及建筑物包括在内，建筑EXODUS疏散模型已扩展到对大规模城市疏散进行建模。疏散模拟结果与森林火灾蔓延模型的结果相结合，并应用于2011年5月发生在英国伯克郡的斯温利森林火灾。评估了行人所走路线不同的四种疏散程序，提供了关键的疏散统计数据，如到达集合地点的时间、行驶的距离、代理人经历的拥堵以及与使用每条疏散路线相关的安全裕度。这项工作的一个关键发现是，必须制定疏散程序，以识别受威胁的人口，及时发出疏散通知，确定与危险前线保持安全距离的适当路线，从而即使以选择更长的疏散路线为代价，也能最大限度地提高安全裕度。疏散模拟为实现这些目标提供了一种手段。
Forest fires are an annual occurrence in many parts of the world forcing large-scale evacuation. The frequent and growing occurrence of these events makes it necessary to develop appropriate evacuation plans for areas that are susceptible to forest fires. The buildingEXODUS evacuation model has been extended to model large-scale urban evacuations by including the road network and open spaces (e.g. parks, green spaces and town squares) along with buildings. The evacuation simulation results have been coupled with the results of a forest fire spread model and applied to the Swinley forest fire which occurred in Berkshire, UK in May 2011. Four evacuation procedures differing in the routes taken by the pedestrians were evaluated providing key evacuation statistics such as time to reach the assembly location, the distance travelled, congestion experienced by the agents and the safety margins associated with using each evacuation route. A key finding of this work is the importance of formulating evacuation procedures that identifies the threatened population, provides timely evacuation notice, identifies appropriate routes that maintains a safe distance from the hazard front thereby maximising safety margins even at the cost of taking longer evacuation routes. Evacuation simulation offers a means of achieving these goals.