Uncooperative society, uncooperative politics or both? Trust, polarization, populism and COVID-19 deaths across European regions
Uncooperative society, uncooperative politics or both? Trust, polarization, populism and COVID-19 deaths across European regions
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DOI：
10.1111/1475-6765.12529
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发表时间：
2022-04-19
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Rodriguez-Pose, Andres
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charron, Nicholas;Lapuente, Victor;Rodriguez-Pose, Andres
为什么有些地区在抗击COVID-19方面的表现优于其他地区？本文使用了一个关于165个欧洲地区超额死亡率、信任和政治极化的新数据集，探讨了社会和政治分歧在COVID-19大流行第一波期间超额死亡率显著区域差异中的作用。首先，我们调查了社会和政治信任度低的地区是否有更高的超额死亡率。第二，我们认为，这不仅是水平，而且在公民之间的信任极化-特别是，政府的支持者和非支持者之间-这对于理解为什么在一些地区的人采取了更多的亲健康的行为。第三，我们探讨了地区议会的党派构成和政治分歧之间的关系-或者我们所说的“不合作的政治”。我们假设，意识形态定位-特别是那些倾向于民粹主义的政党-和政党之间的意识形态两极分化也与较高的死亡率有关。考虑到一系列潜在的混杂因素，我们发现强有力的支持，社会和政治信任水平较低的地区与较高的超额死亡率，沿着公民极化的制度信任在一些模型。关于地区议会的意识形态构成，我们发现，在其他条件不变的情况下，那些在“GAL-TAN”光谱上更倾向于“TAN”的议会产生了更高的超额死亡率。此外，尽管我们发现有限的证据表明精英两极分化导致了左右或GAL-TAN光谱的过度死亡，但对欧盟态度的党派差异显示了显着更高的死亡率，我们认为这是（反）民粹主义的代理人。总体而言，我们发现，在第一波大流行期间，欧洲地区较低的公民信任和地区议会的民粹主义精英意识形态特征与较高的超额死亡率有关。
Why have some territories performed better than others in the fight against COVID-19? This paper uses a novel dataset on excess mortality, trust and political polarization for 165 European regions to explore the role of social and political divisions in the remarkable regional differences in excess mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we investigate whether regions characterized by a low social and political trust witnessed a higher excess mortality. Second, we argue that it is not only levels, but also polarization in trust among citizens - in particular, between government supporters and non-supporters - that matters for understanding why people in some regions have adopted more pro-healthy behaviour. Third, we explore the partisan make-up of regional parliaments and the relationship between political division - or what we refer to as 'uncooperative politics'. We hypothesize that the ideological positioning - in particular those that lean more populist - and ideological polarization among political parties is also linked to higher mortality. Accounting for a host of potential confounders, we find robust support that regions with lower levels of both social and political trust are associated with higher excess mortality, along with citizen polarization in institutional trust in some models. On the ideological make-up of regional parliaments, we find that, ceteris paribus, those that lean more 'tan' on the 'GAL-TAN' spectrum yielded higher excess mortality. Moreover, although we find limited evidence of elite polarization driving excess deaths on the left-right or GAL-TAN spectrums, partisan differences on the attitudes towards the European Union demonstrated significantly higher deaths, which we argue proxies for (anti)populism. Overall, we find that both lower citizen-level trust and populist elite-level ideological characteristics of regional parliaments are associated with higher excess mortality in European regions during the first wave of the pandemic.