The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions
The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions
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DOI：
10.1101/2020.05.01.20088047
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发表时间：
2020-07-28
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Kuhl, Ellen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Linka, Kevin;Peirlinck, Mathias;Kuhl, Ellen
在过去6个月里，没有哪个数字比COVID-19的再现数字更持久地占据了公共媒体的头条。这一强大而简单的概念被公共媒体、科学家和政治决策者广泛用于解释和证明控制COVID-19大流行的政治战略的合理性。在这里，我们利用2019冠状病毒病在欧洲的再现数来探讨政治干预的有效性。我们提出了一个具有时变再现数的动态SEIR流行病学模型，我们使用机器学习来识别它。疫情初期基本繁殖数为4.22 +/- 1.69，德国和荷兰的最大值分别为6.33和5.88。到2020年5月10日，该指数降至0.67 +/- 0.18，匈牙利和斯洛伐克的最低值分别为0.37和0.28。研究发现，旅客乘飞机出行、自驾出行、步行出行和交通出行与有效繁殖数有较强的相关性，时间延迟为17.24±2.00天。我们新的动态SEIR模型提供了灵活性，可以模拟各种疫情控制和退出战略，为政治决策提供信息，并确定有利于全球卫生的安全解决方案。
Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic reproduction number was 4.22 +/- 1.69, with maximum values of 6.33 and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67 +/- 0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24 +/- 2.00 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.