Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation
Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation
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DOI：
10.1007/s11709-021-0765-1
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Wenrui Huang;Kai Yin;M. Ghorbanzadeh;E. Ozguven;Sudong Xu;Linoj Vijayan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenrui Huang;Kai Yin;M. Ghorbanzadeh;E. Ozguven;Sudong Xu;Linoj Vijayan
本研究进行了综合风暴潮建模和交通分析，通过飓风艾尔玛的案例研究来评估飓风疏散的有效性。 2017 年的 5 级飓风造成了创纪录的疏散，佛罗里达州全州估计有 680 万人搬迁。应用高级环流（ADCIRC）模型来模拟飓风事件期间的风暴潮。模型验证表明，模拟的压力、风和风暴潮与观测结果相比较。使用模型模拟风暴潮和风来估计受飓风艾尔玛影响的区域。结果显示，风暴潮和强风主要影响佛罗里达州西南部沿海县。模型模拟和飓风登陆区域附近的联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 飓风后评估仅显示中等风暴潮（最大约 2.5 m）和最大风速约 115 英里/小时。风暴潮没有达到100年一遇洪水的高度。最大风力远低于佛罗里达州南部沿海地区建筑规范 (FBC) 定义的 150-170 英里/小时（5 类）的设计风速。与受风暴潮和1-3级风影响的6个沿海县约225万人口相比，全州约680万人的疏散被认为是过度疏散，主要是由于飓风路径的不确定性，从佛罗里达州东南部转移到西南部。飓风路径的不确定性使得预测合适的风暴潮淹没区进行疏散变得困难。交通数据用于分析疏散交通模式。在佛罗里达州东南部，疏散交通在飓风到来前 4 天就开始了。然而，飓风路径发生转变，最终登陆佛罗里达州西南部，导致佛罗里达州西南部的疏散交通量较高。过度疏散导致部分高速公路疏散交通指数（ETI）比正常情况高出200%，疏散效果降低。这项研究的结果表明，未来可以通过更准确的飓风预报、更好的公众对实时风暴潮和风的认识以及集成风暴潮和疏散模型来快速应对飓风预报的不确定性来提高疏散效率。
An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index (ETI) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.