Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population
Validation of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival After Curative Colectomy in a Chinese Colon Cancer Population
复制标题
验证纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心诺模图预测中国结肠癌人群治愈性结肠切除术后的总体生存率
DOI：
10.1245/s10434-015-4495-2
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Su, Xiangqian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Maoxing;Qu, Hong;Su, Xiangqian
由斯隆-凯特琳纪念癌症中心（MSKCC）设计的结肠癌诺模图是一种在线预测工具，用于预测个体患者根治性切除术后的总生存率。然而，这一模式从未得到外部验证。我们在一个独立的外部中国队列中评估了该诺模图的准确性。1996年至2008年期间在北京大学肿瘤医院接受主要治疗目的手术的1005例患者的临床数据用于外部验证。采用一致性指数（C-index）和校准图对985例资料完整的患者的临床病理特征和MSKCC列线图预测总生存率的性能进行了评价，中国队列MSKCC列线图的C-index为0.71，而美国癌症联合委员会（AJCC）分期的C-index为0.67（P <0.0001）。这表明列线图比AJCC分期系统更能区分总生存期。校准图显示验证队列中列线图的良好校准。此外，MSKCC诺模图预测说明了中国患者在每个AJCC分期内的生存异质性。当应用于外部中国队列时，结肠癌的MSKCC诺模图比AJCC分期系统提供更准确的生存预测。MSKCC列线图改善了生存的个体化预测，并可能有助于更准确的患者咨询，各种治疗方案的选择和随访计划。
Colon cancer nomogram designed by Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) is an online prediction tool to predict overall survival for individual patient after curative resection. However, this model was never externally validated. We evaluated the accuracy of this nomogram in an independent external Chinese cohort.Clinical data from 1005 patients who underwent primary curative-intent surgery at Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute between 1996 and 2008 were used for external validation. Clinicopathologic characteristics and the performance of the MSKCC nomogram for prediction of overall survival were evaluated for 985 patients with complete data by using concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot.The C-index for the MSKCC nomogram was 0.71 in the Chinese cohort, compared with 0.67 for American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (P < .0001). This suggests that the nomogram discriminates overall survival better than AJCC staging system. Calibration plot showed a good calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the MSKCC nomogram prediction illustrated the heterogeneity for survival of Chinese patients within each AJCC stage.The MSKCC nomogram for colon cancer provides more accurate survival predictions than the AJCC staging system when applied to an external Chinese cohort. The MSKCC nomogram improved individualized prediction of survival and may aid in more accurate patient counseling, selection of various treatment options, and follow-up scheduling.