Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes
Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.005
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
J. A. Wardekker;A. de Jong;J. Knoop;J. P. van der Sluijs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. A. Wardekker;A. de Jong;J. Knoop;J. P. van der Sluijs
气候变化可能给沿海城市带来相当大的挑战，特别是在地势低洼的城市三角洲。然而，影响与大量的不确定性相关。本文研究了一种不确定性鲁棒适应策略：增强受影响系统的恢复能力。该方法通过文献研究、访谈和研讨会在鹿特丹市实施。使用国家气候统计数据和情景以及一组“通配符”（可想象的惊喜）探讨了潜在影响。海平面上升，特别是与风暴潮相结合，以及持续的炎热和干旱是该地区最相关的潜在压力。这些可能会导致损害、形象损失和社会混乱。责任不明确会加剧混乱。 “复原力原则”使复原力概念充分可操作，可供当地参与者探索政策选择。城市复原力的有用原则包括：稳态、杂食、高通量、平坦、缓冲、冗余、远见和准备/规划、分区和灵活的规划/设计。弹性方法使系统不易受到干扰，能够快速灵活地做出响应，并且比传统的预测方法能够更好地处理意外情况。当地行为者将复原力视为一种灵活的适应方法，比严格的自上而下的法规更适合当地情况并根据当地情况量身定制。除了政策上的改变外，还需要民众有更加积极主动的心态。
Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop. Potential impacts have been explored using national climate statistics and scenarios and a set of ‘wildcards’ (imaginable surprises). Sea level rise, particularly in combination with storm surge, and enduring heat and drought are the most relevant potential stresses in the area. These can lead to damage, loss of image, and societal disruption. Unclear responsibilities enhance disruption. ‘Resilience principles’ made the concept of resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to explore policy options. Useful principles for urban resilience include: homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, redundancy, foresight and preparedness/planning, compartmentalisation, and flexible planning/design. A resilience approach makes the system less prone to disturbances, enables quick and flexible responses, and is better capable of dealing with surprises than traditional predictive approaches. Local actors frame resilience as a flexible approach to adaptation that would be more suitable and tailored to local situations than rigid top–down regulations. In addition to a change in policy, it would require a more pro-active mentality among the population.