The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems
The Implications of Global Change for the Co‐Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy‐Water‐Land Systems
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001970
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发表时间：
2021-08
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Wild;Zarrar Khan;Mengqi Zhao;M. Suriano;J. L. Bereslawski;Paula Roberts;J. Casado;Marcelo Gaviño‐Novillo;L. Clarke;M. Hejazi;F. Miralles-Wilhelm;Raúl Muñoz-Castillo;C. Vernon;Abigail C. Snyder;B. Yarlagadda;A. Birnbaum;J. Lamontagne;D. White;Glorynel Ojeda-Matos
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作者：
T. Wild;Zarrar Khan;Mengqi Zhao;M. Suriano;J. L. Bereslawski;Paula Roberts;J. Casado;Marcelo Gaviño‐Novillo;L. Clarke;M. Hejazi;F. Miralles-Wilhelm;Raúl Muñoz-Castillo;C. Vernon;Abigail C. Snyder;B. Yarlagadda;A. Birnbaum;J. Lamontagne;D. White;Glorynel Ojeda-Matos
本研究旨在了解阿根廷的能源，水和土地（EWL）系统将如何在人类和地球系统影响的代表性阵列下共同进化，包括社会经济变化，气候变化和气候政策。为了在全球变化的背景下捕捉阿根廷的次国家EWL动态，我们将全球变化分析模型与一套一致的网格化部门降尺度模型相结合，以探索多个利益相关者参与的情景。在各种情景中，阿根廷有经济机会利用其广阔的土地资源来满足国内和国际对作物（如石油）日益增长的需求，大豆）和生物质。人类（而不是地球）系统产生了世纪中期EWL资源使用的最主要变化。一个以适度社会经济增长为特征的参考情景预测，到2050年，阿根廷的农业生产将增加40%（相对于2020年），使用50，000平方公里的额外耕地和40%的水。一个旨在实现全球净零碳排放的气候政策情景在世纪中期项目后不久，阿根廷可以使用10万平方公里的额外土地（和65%的水）来种植生物质和其他作物。驾驭这些国家机遇和挑战的重担可能不成比例地落在阿根廷河流流域的一部分。科罗拉多和内格罗盆地可能会经历中度至严重的水资源短缺，因为它们同时应对灌溉作物需求的大幅增长和气候引起的天然水资源供应下降。阿根廷作为一个可推广的试验平台，证明通过对人地耦合系统的综合分析，可以更有效地识别和管理多尺度EWL规划挑战。
This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co‐evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub‐national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder‐engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid‐century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net‐zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid‐century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate‐to‐severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate‐induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi‐scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human‐earth systems.