Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination
Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination
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财政乘数和政策协调
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.894291
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gauti B. Eggertsson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gauti B. Eggertsson
本文研究了名义利率为零的财政政策的有效性。我分析了一个具有粘性价格和理性预期的随机一般均衡模型，假设政府不能承诺未来的政策。实际政府支出通过增加公共消费来增加需求。赤字支出通过产生通胀预期来增加需求。我推导出财政支出乘数，计算每1美元政府支出(实际支出或赤字支出)的产出增加多少。在货币和财政政策协调下，实际支出乘数为3.4，赤字支出乘数为3.8。然而，在没有政策协调的情况下，也就是说，当央行“目标独立”时，实际支出乘数不变，但赤字支出乘数为零.协调失灵或许可以解释，为什么近年来日本的财政政策相对不如大萧条时期那么有效。
This paper addresses the effectiveness of fiscal policy at zero nominal interest rates. I analyze a stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations and assume that the government cannot commit to future policy. Real government spending increases demand by increasing public consumption. Deficit spending increases demand by generating inflation expectations. I derive fiscal spending multipliers that calculate how much output increases for each dollar of government spending (real or deficit). Under monetary and fiscal policy coordination, the real spending multiplier is 3.4 and the deficit spending multiplier is 3.8. However, when there is no policy coordination, that is, when the central bank is "goal independent," the real spending multiplier is unchanged but the deficit spending multiplier is zero. Coordination failure may explain why fiscal policy in Japan has been relatively less effective in recent years than during the Great Depression.