Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions
Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.022
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发表时间：
2016-03-15
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Goetz, Klaus-Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chmielewski, Frank-M.;Goetz, Klaus-Peter
六个物候模型，两个简单的强迫（F）-模型和一个顺序的冷却/强迫（CF）-模型，每个有和没有日长（DL）-项的强迫方法进行了优化（2001-2010）和验证（2011-2015）在柏林-Dahlem（品种“Summit”）的实验甜樱桃果园的非常准确的开花数据。同时，在3个季节（2011/2012-2013/2014）进行气候室实验，以确定“Summit”的休眠结束，这通常是物候建模中的未知或不确定参数。此外，在2013/2014年季节安排了甜果园的三棵树的原位气候变化实验，用于验证实验地点明显温暖的气候条件下的物候模型。在我们的气候室实验的基础上，我们量化了“峰会”树木的冷需求。因此，我们能够确定甜樱桃开花开始的CF模型，其主要是基于生理学的，并且对于实验地点的当前和未来气候条件很好地工作。本文还展示了物候模型如何在温暖的气候下失败，如果模型过于简单或模型参数错误。此外，我们证实，在强迫方法中加入DL项的物候模型明显优于不含此参数的常规物候模型。这种行为的原因被广泛讨论。(C)2015 Elsevier B. V.版权所有。
Six phenological models, two simple forcing (F)-models and one sequential chilling/forcing (CF)-model, each with and without day length (DL)-term in the forcing approach were optimised (2001-2010) and validated (2011-2015) on very accurate blossoming data of an experimental sweet cherry orchard at Berlin-Dahlem (cultivar 'Summit'). In parallel, in 3 seasons (2011/2012-2013/2014) climate chamber experiments were performed in order to determine the end of dormancy for 'Summit', which is usually an unknown or uncertain parameter in phenological modelling. Additionally, in the season 2013/2014 an in situ climate change experiment on three trees in the sweet cherry orchard were arranged, which was used to validate the phenological models for distinctly warmer climate conditions at the experimental site. On the basis of our climate chamber experiments we quantified the chilling requirement of 'Summit' trees. Thus, we were able to identify a CF -model for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom which is mostly physiologically based and works well for current and for future climate conditions at the experimental site. This paper also shows how phenological models can fail under warmer climates, if either the model is too simple or the model parameters are wrong. Additional, we confirmed that phenological models with DL -term in the forcing approach clearly surpassed the conventional phenological models without this parameter. The reason for this behaviour is extensively discussed. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.