Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.
Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-8-s1-s8
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发表时间：
2009-12-21
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Stevenson DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Doherty RM;Heal MR;Wilkinson P;Pattenden S;Vieno M;Armstrong B;Atkinson R;Chalabi Z;Kovats S;Milojevic A;Stevenson DS
我们描述了一个量化英国当前和未来排放情景下热量和臭氧对死亡率的负担的项目。通过气候化学建模和流行病风险评估相结合的方法，对因高温和臭氧暴露而造成的死亡率负担进行了估算。天气预报模型（WRF）被用来模拟驾驶气象学的EMEP 4UK化学传输模式在5公里5公里的水平分辨率在英国各地的耦合WRF EMEP 4UK模型被用来模拟每日的表面温度和臭氧浓度为2003年，2005年和2006年，以及未来的排放情景。这些模型的输出相结合的证据臭氧死亡率和热死亡率的关系来自流行病学分析（时间序列回归）的每日死亡率在15个英国大城市，1993-2003年，以量化当今的健康负担。在2003年8月的热浪期间，在伦敦和其他地方测得臭氧浓度升高> 200 μg m-3。这一事件和其他臭氧光化学事件导致违反了英国的臭氧空气质量目标。用WRF-EMEP 4UK进行的模拟再现了2003年8月的热浪温度和臭氧浓度。在热浪期间，臭氧高浓度每天都在变化，这在某些日子里可能是由于从欧洲大陆输入臭氧。初步计算，使用扩展的时间序列的空间分辨WRF-EMEP 4UK模式输出表明，在2003年，2005年和2006年的夏季（5月至9月）超过6000人死亡，可归因于臭氧和约5000热在英格兰和威尔士。这些死亡的区域差异在与热有关的负担方面似乎比在与臭氧有关的负担方面更大。由于一系列未来排放情景，英国健康负担的变化将被量化。这些未来的排放情景涵盖了一系列可能的未来，从假设当前的空气质量立法得到全面实施，到更乐观的情况下的最大可行减排，再到更悲观的情况下的持续强劲的经济增长和空气质量立法的最小实施。2003年热浪期间地面臭氧浓度升高，导致英国现行空气质量客观标准失效。一个耦合的气候-化学模型能够再现这些温度和臭氧极端情况。通过将表面温度和臭氧的模型模拟与来自流行病学回归模型的臭氧-热-死亡率关系相结合，我们估计了英国当前和未来的健康负担。未来的空气质量立法可能需要考虑未来热浪增加的风险。
We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 μg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent. Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens. Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.