Short and Long-Term Prediction of Recidivism Using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory in a Sample of Serious Young Offenders
Short and Long-Term Prediction of Recidivism Using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory in a Sample of Serious Young Offenders
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DOI：
10.1037/h0093927
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Wong, Stephen C. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olver, Mark E.;Stockdale, Keira C.;Wong, Stephen C. P.
本调查研究的预测准确性的青年服务水平/案件管理清单（YLS/CMI）的青年和成年人累犯在加拿大样本的167名青年（93名男性，74名女性）被控严重罪行谁收到的心理服务，从社区心理健康门诊。在社区中对青少年进行了平均7年的随访，并对几种累犯结果的预测准确性进行了检查，这些结果是性别、种族和发育年龄组的函数。YLS/CMI总分显着预测所有累犯类别的整体样本（曲线下面积值范围从0.66至0.77），虽然作为一个整体的工具，其犯罪的需要，表现出更强，更一致的预测精度为青年的结果。YLS/CMI在人口统计学亚组中也表现出显著的预测准确性。这些研究结果的影响进行了讨论，在使用风险需求评估工具提供临床评估，治疗和案件管理服务，以不同的青少年罪犯群体。
The present investigation examined the predictive accuracy of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Canadian sample of 167 youths (93 males, 74 females) charged with serious offenses who received psychological services from a community mental health outpatient clinic. Youths were followed for an average of 7 years in the community, and predictive accuracy was examined for several recidivism outcomes as a function of gender, ethnicity, and developmental age group. YLS/CMI total scores significantly predicted all recidivism categories in the overall sample (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.77) although the instrument as a whole, and its criminogenic needs, demonstrated somewhat stronger and more consistent predictive accuracy for youth outcomes. The YLS/CMI also demonstrated significant predictive accuracy within demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the use of risk-need assessment tools in providing clinical assessment, treatment, and case management services to diverse young offender groups.