Persistent Patterns of International Commerce
Persistent Patterns of International Commerce
复制标题
国际商务的持久模式
DOI：
10.1177/0022343307075119
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
P. Hoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Ward;P. Hoff
作者检验了一个国际贸易的标准引力模型，该模型被扩充以包括政治和制度对双边贸易的影响。使用1980-2001年的年度数据，他们使用每年的模型层次结构来估计回归系数和剩余相关性。本文开发并采用了一种策略来评估各种模型的样本外预测强度，而不是通过传统的统计意义指标(如p值)来衡量这些模式的泛化能力。对最近国际贸易的分析表明，除了典型的重力模型规范外，政治和制度变量也很重要。这篇文章还表明，经常被报道的国际冲突和双边贸易之间的联系是难以捉摸的，将冲突纳入贸易模型有时会导致样本外预测性能下降。此外，本文还说明，存在实质性的、持久的出口国和进口国特有的剩余效应，在关系贸易数据中忽视这种模式会导致国际贸易的图景不完整，即使在重力模型等成熟框架的背景下也是如此。
The authors examine a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from 1980-2001, they estimate regression coefficients and residual dependencies using a hierarchy of models in each year. Rather than gauge the generalizability of these patterns via traditional measures of statistical significance such as p-values, this article develops and employs a strategy to evaluate the out-of-sample predictive strength of various models. The analysis of recent international commerce shows that in addition to a typical gravity-model specification, political and institutional variables are important. The article also demonstrates that the often-reported link between international conflict and bilateral trade is elusive, and that inclusion of conflict in a trade model can sometimes lead to reduced out-of-sample predictive performance. Further, this article illustrates that there are substantial, persistent residual exporter- and importer-specific effects, and that ignoring such patterns in relational trade data results in an incomplete picture of international commerce, even in the context of a well-established framework such as the gravity model.