Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries
Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5
复制
发表时间：
2022-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Yamazaki, Dai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
He, Yi;Manful, Desmond;Yamazaki, Dai
我们预测气候变化引起的河流洪水风险的变化，到2100年全球变暖1.5至4摄氏度之间的六个水平，重点是六个国家的主要河流流域。通过结合每月观测、每日再分析数据和ISI-MIP快速轨道项目中也选择的五个CMIP 5 GCM的预测变化，生成了降水、温度和每月潜在蒸散量的每日时间序列。这些系列然后被用来驱动HBV水文模型和CaMa-Flood水动力模型来模拟河流流量和洪水淹没。我们的研究结果表明，在二十世纪后期（Q100- 20 C），重现期为1/100年的洪水很可能会随着变暖而减少。在升温1.5摄氏度时，巴西、中国、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、加纳和印度的主要流域面积分别有47%、66%、27%、65%、62%和92%经历了Q100- 20摄氏度重现期的减少，升温4摄氏度时增加到54%、81%、28%、82%、86%和96%。重现期的缩短导致更多的人面临洪水风险，特别是在升温4摄氏度的情况下，这六个国家主要河流流域地区的风险显著增加，从增加一倍（中国）到增加50倍以上（埃及）不等。将升温限制在1.5摄氏度将避免这些增加的风险，导致6个国家的风险增加12%至1266%。
We project climate change induced changes in fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4 degrees C by 2100, focusing on the major river basins of six countries. Daily time series of precipitation, temperature and monthly potential evapotranspiration were generated by combining monthly observations, daily reanalysis data and projected changes in the five CMIP5 GCMs also selected in the ISI-MIP fast track project. These series were then used to drive the HBV hydrological model and the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to simulate river discharge and flood inundation. Our results indicate that return periods of 1 in 100-year floods in the late twentieth century (Q100-20C) are likely to decrease with warming. At 1.5 degrees C warming, 47%, 66%, 27%, 65%, 62% and 92% of the major basin areas in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India respectively experience a decrease in the return period of Q100-20C, increasing to 54%, 81%, 28%, 82%, 86% and 96% with 4 degrees C warming. The decrease in return periods leads to increased number of people exposed to flood risks, particularly with 4 degrees C warming, where exposure in the major river basin areas in the six countries increases significantly, ranging from a doubling (China) to more than 50-fold (Egypt). Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C would avoid much of these increased risks, resulting in increases ranging from 12 to 1266% for the 6 countries.