Estimating the invasion success of introduced plants
Estimating the invasion success of introduced plants
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00440.x
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Barker, Robyn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caley, Peter;Groves, Richard H.;Barker, Robyn
我们提出的方法来估计引进的外来物种的基础比例，将归化，和时间的分布，直到归化发生。该方法是贝叶斯，纳入入籍概率和时间从引进到入籍的先验估计。一个工作的例子使用的数据的引进和时间记录归化的木本多年生植物引入到南澳。截至2007年，1843年至1985年期间在苗圃目录中列出的2230种多年生木本植物中有188种（8.4%）被记录为归化。如果忽略来自其他地方的归化率的先验信息，现有数据表明，最有可能归化的引进植物比例很大（0.93），但不确定（95% CI 0.51-0.99），相应的平均时间记录归化被延长（522年），同样不确定（95% CI 360-678年）。或者，如果纳入入籍概率和记录入籍时间的信息性先验估计值，则最可能的入籍概率估计为18.6%（95% CI 15.5-23.4%）。对于那些归化的植物，从进口到记录归化的平均时间最可能的值是149年（95% CI 130-174年）。我们的研究结果说明了潜在的长时间尺度的归化过程中，这提出了获得准确的估计归化参数的挑战。
We present methods for estimating the base proportion of introduced alien species that will naturalize, and the distribution of time until naturalization occurs. The approach is Bayesian, incorporating prior estimates of the probability of naturalization and the time from introduction to naturalization. A worked example uses data on the introduction and time to recorded naturalization of woody perennials introduced to South Australia. Up until 2007, 188 of 2230 (8.4%) woody perennials listed in nursery catalogues between 1843 and 1985 were recorded as having naturalized. If prior information on naturalization rates from elsewhere is ignored, the available data suggest that the most likely proportion of introduced plants that will naturalize is large (0.93) though uncertain (95% CI 0.51-0.99), with the corresponding mean time to recorded naturalization being protracted (522 years) and similarly uncertain (95% CI 360-678 years). Alternatively, if informative prior estimates of both the naturalization probability and the time to recorded naturalization are incorporated, the most likely probability of naturalization is estimated to be 18.6% (95% CI 15.5-23.4%). For those plants that do naturalize, the most likely value for the mean time from importation to recorded naturalization is 149 years (95% CI 130-174 years). Our results illustrate the potentially long timescale of the naturalization process, and the challenges this presents for obtaining accurate estimates of naturalization parameters.