Tsunami Hazard Evaluation of the Eastern Mediterranean: Historical Analysis and Selected Modeling
Tsunami Hazard Evaluation of the Eastern Mediterranean: Historical Analysis and Selected Modeling
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东地中海海啸灾害评估：历史分析和选定的模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Comastri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Salamon;T. Rockwell;S. Ward;E. Guidoboni;A. Comastri
自从几千年前有文字记载的历史首次出现以来，地中海东部就有地震海浪的报道。我们收集并调查了这些古代和现代的报告，以了解和模拟典型的海啸源，最终目的是描述黎凡特海岸的海啸灾害特征。令人惊讶的是，只有 35% 的海啸报告可以追溯到主要来源，其余的仍然值得怀疑。海啸的规模各不相同，从几乎不明显到造成巨大破坏，其影响范围从局部到区域不等。总的来说，我们列出了自公元前二世纪中叶以来发生的 21 次可靠报道的海啸。沿着黎凡特海岸，还有 57 次源自“当地”大陆死海转换 (dst) 系统的重大历史地震。深入评估表明，10 次海啸显然与陆地地震有关，因此，正如之前所指出的，它们可能源自近海、地震引起的塌陷。八场海啸来自“偏远”的希腊和塞浦路斯弧线，其中一场来自意大利，还有两场海啸的来源尚未确定。这项工作的一个主要结论是，陆上地震通常会在黎凡特海岸线沿线产生海啸，类似的情况也存在于地中海其他地方、加利福尼亚海岸以及海岸附近有活动断层的其他地区。
我们模拟了三种典型情景，并根据苏门答腊岛的经验，我们研究了更可能的严重震级。这当然会引导我们走向预期上涨的上限。模型显示，在强震产生近海塌陷（近三分之一的大地震发生后）后不到五分钟，4 至 6 米的上升可能会淹没叙利亚、黎巴嫩和以色列部分海岸。然而，远程地震引发的海啸来得较晚，仅产生 1 至 3 米的上升高度，但范围更具区域性。
在线材料：海啸建模和报告。
Seismic sea waves in the eastern Mediterranean have been reported since written history first emerged several thousand years ago. We collected and investigated these ancient and modern reports to understand and model the typical tsunamigenic sources, with the ultimate purpose of characterizing tsunami hazard along the Levant coasts. Surprisingly, only 35% of the tsunami reports could be traced back to primary sources, with the balance remaining questionable. The tsunamis varied in size, from barely noticeable to greatly damaging, and their effects ranged from local to regional. Overall, we list 21 reliably reported tsunamis that occurred since the mid second century b.c. along the Levant coast, along with 57 significant historical earthquakes that originated from the “local” continental Dead Sea Transform (dst) system. An in-depth evaluation shows that 10 tsunamis are clearly associated with on-land dst earthquakes, and therefore, as formerly suggested, they probably originated from offshore, seismogenically induced slumps. Eight tsunamis arrived from the “remote” Hellenic and Cypriot Arcs, one from Italy, and two are left with as yet unrecognized sources. A major conclusion from this work is that onshore earthquakes commonly produce tsunamis along the Levant coastline, and that analogous situations are present elsewhere in the Mediterranean, as well as along the California coast and in another regions with active faults near the coast.
We modeled three typical scenarios, and in light of the Sumatra experience, we examined the more likely severe magnitudes. This of course leads us toward the upper range of expected run-ups. The models show that sooner than five minutes after a strong earthquake produces an offshore slump, which occurs after close to a third of the large dst earthquakes, a 4- to 6-m run-up may flood part of the Syrian, Lebanese, and Israeli coasts. Tsunamis from remote earthquakes, however, arrive later and produce only 1- to 3-m run-ups, but are more regional in extent.
Online material: Tsunami modeling and reports.