Analysis of the climate change impact on water availability and the links between water pollution and economy for sustainable water resource management in Kaski District, Nepal
Analysis of the climate change impact on water availability and the links between water pollution and economy for sustainable water resource management in Kaski District, Nepal
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DOI：
10.2166/wcc.2022.105
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
S. Chapagain;Anil Aryal;G. Mohan;S. Malla;B. Mishra;K. Fukushi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Chapagain;Anil Aryal;G. Mohan;S. Malla;B. Mishra;K. Fukushi
新颁布的国家水政策旨在确保尼泊尔水的可持续性。尽管理论上具有相关性，但由于对可持续性的关键方面（如水的供应和需求、污染以及气候变化和社会经济增长的影响）的研究有限，有效执行方面仍然存在问题。本研究分析了气候变化情景下当前和未来水资源的可用性，并将水资源承载力（WRCC）确定为尼泊尔卡斯基区案例研究中可以支持的最大社会经济增长。在代表性浓度路径4.5和8.5排放情景下，基准期（1992-2010年）的年平均水供应量估计为110.307亿立方米，未来期（2022-2050年）的年平均水供应量估计分别为7，677.4和7，674.2亿立方米。在基线期，水资源承载力远远超过当前人口;因此，水资源不会成为当地社会经济发展的限制因素。然而，可持续的水基础设施发展政策是必要的，以确保可靠的供水，能够科普日益增加的季节性变化和未来供水量的下降。根据2011年卡斯基区的经济活动，估计生物需氧量（BOD）负荷总量为30，049吨，首次确定了水污染的直接和间接部门作用。要有效地执行水污染控制政策，就必须采取针对具体部门的多项战略，而不是基于污染负荷的单一污染控制战略。
The newly enacted national water policy is envisioned as ensuring water sustainability in Nepal. Despite theoretical pertinence, questions remain about the effective implementation due to limited studies on key aspects of sustainability, such as water supply and demand, pollution, and impacts of climate change and socio-economic growth. This study analyses the current and future availability of water under climate change scenarios and determines water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) as the maximum socio-economic growth that can be supported in a case study on the Kaski District, Nepal. Annual average water availability was estimated to be 11,030.7 million cubic meters (MCM) for the baseline period (1992–2010), and 7,677.4 and 7,674.2 MCM for the future period (2022–2050) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. For the baseline period, WRCC far exceeds the current population; therefore, water resources will not be a limiting factor for local socio-economic development. Nevertheless, sustainable water infrastructure development policies are necessary to ensure a reliable water supply able to cope with increasing seasonal variability and declining future water availability. A total of 30,049 tons of biological oxygen demand (BOD) loads were estimated based on the economic activities of the Kaski District in 2011, with the direct and indirect sectoral roles of water pollution determined for the first time. Rather than a single pollution control strategy based on pollution loads, multiple sector-specific strategies are necessary to effectively implement water pollution control policies.